Hensley Rating System for Regional Championships

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    statmanhensley's Avatar
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    Hensley Rating System for Regional Championships

    I'm not going to explain how I came up with this system but it's simple as can be. If you find the thread I posted for last week's games then you'll know how I come up with the numbers that I have come up with.

    Now for those that have been waiting.....here they are:

    Class A
    Mayfield over Metcalfe County by 20.4
    Bardstown over Danville by 6.25
    Newport Central Catholic over Lexington Christian Academy by 14.65 (I did give NCC the 6 points this week since LCA has to travel to NKY)
    Somerset over Paintsville by 14.7

    Class 2A
    Fort Campbell over Owensboro Catholic by 14.4
    Western over DeSales by 2.1
    Newport over Russell by 0.3
    Belfry over Sheldon Clark by 26.4

    Class 3A
    Bowling Green over Hopkinsville by 4.05
    Bullitt East over Boyle County by 8.3
    Highlands over Lexington Catholic by 9.95
    Bell County over Rockcastle County by 11.25

    Class 4A
    Warren Central over Christian County by 14.45
    St. Xavier over John Hardin by 7.7
    Trinity over Boone County by 24.85
    Henry Clay over Paul L. Dunbar by 13.65




    Everyone please remember that this is something that I do for the heck of it and doesn't necessarily mean that I would personally pick these games to go this way but it's a numbers crunch. Have fun with it and please post your thoughts on this week's predictions.
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    Play 2 Win's Avatar
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    How did your number crunch do last week?

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    stickymitts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Play 2 Win
    How did your number crunch do last week?
    Frighteningly accurate...Click here.

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    RNCSportsaholic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stickymitts
    Frightenly accurate...Click here.
    No kiddin! He hit the Paintsville/Lynn Camp game right on the head! He said Paintsville by 1. Final: PHS 28 LC 27.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RNCSportsaholic
    No kiddin! He hit the Paintsville/Lynn Camp game right on the head! He said Paintsville by 1. Final: PHS 28 LC 27.

    I would think you would have "learned" from your mistake last week on LCA!
    29 point variation that you missed by!


    And here you go again this week...picking against them...

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    Quote Originally Posted by EagleEye
    I would think you would have "learned" from your mistake last week on LCA!
    29 point variation that you missed by!


    And here you go again this week...picking against them...
    He picked nothing, he doesn't control the numbers that go in.

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    statmanhensley's Avatar
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    I personally think that the LCA/NCC game will be closer than the numbers from this system has it. Remember that I just took the Cantrell Rankings and Lit Rankings and averaged them......took the difference between the two competing schools and added six points to the home team.

    Like I said before, this system doesn't necessarily portray how I PERSONALLY see the games as ending up. I just did this for fun folks.

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    statmanhensley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 02Ram54
    He picked nothing, he doesn't control the numbers that go in.
    Thanks for the support man!!!

    For the folks that don't know......I am a math major here at NKU......so that could help yuns see that I like to crunch numbers and takes averages and so on and so forth.

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    LRCW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by statmanhensley
    Thanks for the support man!!!

    For the folks that don't know......I am a math major here at NKU......so that could help yuns see that I like to crunch numbers and takes averages and so on and so forth.

    Good job there statman. I expect you to win many a basketball contest this year with your new found formula.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stickymitts
    Frightenly accurate...Click here.

    It was very accurate.

    However it did miss the boat on some interesting games:

    Beechwood was a 6 point favorite but lost to LCA by 23

    Danville was a 27 point favorite but only won by 1

    Leslie was a 26 point fav over Sheldon Clark but Clark pulls the upset by 1

    Christian Co was a less than point favorite with Apollo but won by 31

    Boone was a 7 point underdog but beat Dixie Heights by 18



    You were right on with a number of them but like any system, nothing is fool proof or can factor in the human element. I admire your patience to develop that system.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LRCW
    Good job there statman. I expect you to win many a basketball contest this year with your new found formula.
    I never thought about using this formula for the basketball contests on here this year but since you mentoned it........I MOST CERTAINLY WILL DO SO!!!!

    THANKS

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    statmanhensley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hatz
    It was very accurate.

    However it did miss the boat on some interesting games:

    Beechwood was a 6 point favorite but lost to LCA by 23

    Danville was a 27 point favorite but only won by 1

    Leslie was a 26 point fav over Sheldon Clark but Clark pulls the upset by 1

    Christian Co was a less than point favorite with Apollo but won by 31

    Boone was a 7 point underdog but beat Dixie Heights by 18



    You were right on with a number of them but like any system, nothing is fool proof or can factor in the human element. I admire your patience to develop that system.
    Thanks for the kind words. If I can get my computer in my room fixed in the near future I was thinking about doing a system for basketball each week but that would take some time to do.....thankfully I'll only have MWF classes in the spring semester.

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    Quote Originally Posted by statmanhensley
    Thanks for the kind words. If I can get my computer in my room fixed in the near future I was thinking about doing a system for basketball each week but that would take some time to do.....thankfully I'll only have MWF classes in the spring semester.
    Ahhh the days when I could schedule myself only on the 3 day a week plan.

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    WVA Boy's Avatar
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    :flame:
    Quote Originally Posted by statmanhensley
    Thanks for the support man!!!

    For the folks that don't know......I am a math major here at NKU......so that could help yuns see that I like to crunch numbers and takes averages and so on and so forth.
    How bout some NFL football?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 02Ram54
    He picked nothing, he doesn't control the numbers that go in.

    No problem...I was just kidding him - thus the "smiley face"

    It looks like a simple yet fairly reliable system...now if he could just get it to work on the LOTTERY - we'd ALL be happy!

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