Friday Night Outlook 9/21/18

  1. #1
    nWo's Avatar
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    Friday Night Outlook 9/21/18

    First I want to apologize for being a little late with my outlook for Friday night's games. I've been swamped at work.

    There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Kentucky in a BGP Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms.

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    A band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along an advancing cold front by Friday afternoon/early evening. For now, the primary risk looks to be damaging winds lightning and maybe some heavy downpours under the stronger storms.

    As for timing, the following simulated radar is from 5 pm ET/4 CT to 5 am ET/4 CT. It shows a line of thunderstorms developing between 5-8 pm ET and transversing southeastward across Kentucky.

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    The temperatures around game time look to be from the mid to upper 70s across most of Kentucky. Some may see temps in the low 80s where the rain doesn't fall.

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    I will update early in the morning on the possible severe weather for later in the day for Friday.
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  2. #2
    Tigerpride94's Avatar
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    Just wouldn’t be a Friday night without storms.

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    Friday morning update

    The severe weather threat level has risen for those in the Cincinnati/NKY and surrounding area. The BGP Threat level is now at level 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening hours. The level 1 Marginal Risk Area has been extended southwestward into parts of western Kentucky.

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    Severe storms are possible across parts of Ohio and Kentucky late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. Also a small chance for some hail in the Cincinnati/NKY area. The possibility of a brief tornado can't be ruled out.

    The timing is from around 5 pm ET/4 CT to around 8 pm ET/ 4 CT. With the best chance for strong to severe weather in the Cincinnati/NKY area around 8 pm ET.

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    If you will be out at a local high school football game please have a way of getting notification of severe storms moving into your area.

    I will update later today.
    Take care and have a blessed Fridays.

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    barrel's Avatar
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    Anyone think teams will just move games to Saturday early instead trying to see if they can wait it out tonight?

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    Friday afternoon update

    A line of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe should start forming around 5 pm ET just north and west and along the Ohio River. This line then will traverse southeasterly across Kentucky. These storms could produce damaging winds, lightning, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.


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  6. #6
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barrel View Post
    Anyone think teams will just move games to Saturday early instead trying to see if they can wait it out tonight?
    I hope not. Not with the way this one is looking.

    Here are some questions for @nWo.

    Is it a safety threat any time you can see lightning?

    How far away can you see lightning?

    If you can see lightning but there is no thunder, is that a factor is assessing lightning risk?

  7. #7
    barrel's Avatar
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    I know the rule is if you hear thunder or see lightning it’s 30 minutes period. They don’t mess around with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I hope not. Not with the way this one is looking.

    Here are some questions for @nWo.

    Is it a safety threat any time you can see lightning?

    How far away can you see lightning?

    If you can see lightning but there is no thunder, is that a factor is assessing lightning risk?
    I’m a weather enthusiast. There is lightning that is called blue lightning, where a thunderstorm is 10 to 20 miles away and blue sky, and then lightning strikes out of blue sky. So really not safe unless thunderstorm more than 20 miles away.

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    nWo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I hope not. Not with the way this one is looking.

    Here are some questions for @nWo.

    Is it a safety threat any time you can see lightning?

    How far away can you see lightning?

    If you can see lightning but there is no thunder, is that a factor is assessing lightning risk?



    Quote Originally Posted by Tigerpride94 View Post
    I’m a weather enthusiast. There is lightning that is called blue lightning, where a thunderstorm is 10 to 20 miles away and blue sky, and then lightning strikes out of blue sky. So really not safe unless thunderstorm more than 20 miles away.

    Anytime a thunderstorm is in your area you are at risk. If you hear thunder then you are within striking distance. The 20-mile distance is being rethought. It used to the thinking that lightning can only travel 20 miles. The longest lightning strike on record is 200 miles away from where the storm was.

  10. #10
    Tigerpride94's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nWo View Post
    Anytime a thunderstorm is in your area you are at risk. If you hear thunder then you are within striking distance. The 20-mile distance is being rethought. It used to the thinking that lightning can only travel 20 miles. The longest lightning strike on record is 200 miles away from where the storm was.
    200 miles! Wow! Thx for info.

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