Class 2A Notebook 10/21-Why and Why Not
Breaking Down The Top Teams' Title Chances:
Why Mayfield Will Win the Title- The Cardinals check every box you want. They have a balanced and explosive Offense that is equally adept at putting together long scoring drives as well as big play strikes for sudden points. They have an opportunistic Defense capable of making plays in the backfield.
Why Mayfield Will Not Win the Title- The Cardinals have to take their show on the road and will most likely have to play three of the Top teams in the State away from War Memorial Stadium. Perhaps their stiffest test short of the Finals will be a potential Regional Finals trip to Owensboro Catholic to take on the surging Aces.
Why CAL Will Win the Title- The Centurions have Title Experience, they also have the best individual talents in the Class. CAL may very well have the best Special Teams threat, best Athlete, and best Defensive Back.... and that is all the same player! Throw in perhaps the most dominant Offensive Lineman and an excellent RB and the Centurions simply cause gameplan nightmares.
Why CAL Will Not Win the Title- The question for CAL is always the same. Can they score enough to overcome a night their Defense does not play their best? CAL gets the job done on Offense, but they are far from the most efficient unit in Class 2A. Their Defense typically carries them and the Offense does what is needed, but when they face a team like Mayfield it begs the question if they can score enough if the other team pops a couple big plays.
Why DeSales Will Win the Title- The Colts still have a complete team and a Defense capable of making key stops. DeSales has kind of hobbled down the stretch, but for the better part of the season the Colts were able to make the claim they were one of the best teams in all of Kentucky, let alone Class 2A. With a clock-eating ball controlling Offense, and a very stiff Defense, the Colts are capable of shortening any game and giving themselves a shot.
Why DeSales Will Not Win the Title- DeSales will have to abandon their friendly confides and hit the road following the First Round most likely. This will include road games at CAL and most likely Somerset, two of the better Defensive teams in the Class. The Colts' Offense has just simply plateaued in recent weeks and seems to have lost their ability to generate explosive plays. Subsequently, the Defense has dealt with some bumps and bruises and are yet to show they can totally lock the other team's Offense down completely.
Why OCath Will Win the Title- The Aces are red hot and kind of hanging out off the radar. After losing their first two games to open the season the Aces have been on fire including a win over a very good 5A Owensboro team that looks better every week. Catholic gets Mayfield at home, and if they can win that game they will be a favorite in the Regional Finals. The Aces have a very balanced Offense that has made great strides in protecting the football.
Why OCath Will Not Win the Title- Simply put, until Catholic can get over the Mayfield hurdle it is hard to see them representing the West. Mayfield has outscored the Aces 92-26 and have eliminated each of the past three seasons. As good as Catholic has been, the Aces have not faced an animal like Mayfield all season and the Ace Defense has not exactly been the Steel Curtain against the better teams they have seen. In their four toughest games the team in Green has surrendered a whopping 150 points.
Why Somerset Will Win the Title- The Briarjumpers are playing excellent Defense and should at least be able to give themselves a fighting chance in a potential Semi-Finals game against either CAL or DeSales. As mentioned above, neither Louisville team is exactly lighting up the scoreboard on Offense and with the potential game being played in Somerset, there may be no better shot at an upset for Somerset.
Why Somerset Will Not Win the Title- Somerset played a host of Class 1A's top schools and held their own, but with losses to Beechwood and Raceland it is clear that if Somerset were a Class 1A team and the playoffs started today they would be probably the fourth or fifth most likely pick to win the Title. Class 2A is arguably one of the State's strongest classes 1-5 and this does not bode well for Somerset's shot. As good as Somerset has been on Defense, their Offense has struggled to find it's identity. Can they score enough? We'll see.
Why Glasgow Will Win the Title- Chaos and homefield advantage. Glasgow is a solid team that does many things well, but nothing about their resume suggests they will be a favorite against any of the Top 4 teams. Glasgow needs some upsets, specifically Mayfield to lose, and then need to capitalize on a potential home Semi-Finals game to get to the Finals. Once in the Finals they once again need to hope someone not expected to be there is waiting.
Why Glasgow Will Not Win the Title- The water may just be too deep. Glasgow's SOS is nowhere near that of the other Title Contenders. The only team the Scotties played that is expected to contend for a Regional Title was Franklin-Simpson. The Wildcats not only handed Glasgow their only loss, they did so in dominating fashion. Most likely Glasgow will need to beat three straight Top 10 teams to win a Title and that seems a tall task indeed.
NEWPORT CENTRAL CATHOLIC
Why NewCath Will Win the Title- If they can survive their Region, they can survive anything. By winning their District the Breds' assure that both DeSales and CAL would have to travel to NKY, a huge advantage compared to what Runner-Up Lloyd now must endure. Considering CAL has already beat NewCath 31-0, the odds of the Breds coming out of the Region are slim, but the kids on the roster do know the feeling of seeing CAL walk off the field at Newport Stadium with their heads down.
Why NewCath Will Not Win the Title- Simply put, there are not many teams in Kentucky that could beat DeSales and CAL back to back. Home or not, this is a monstrous hurdle and a likely path to a Title means NewCath will have to beat 4 of the Top 5 teams in the State.
.... as for the rest.
Walton-Verona- You have to love and respect where Coach Barth has brought this relatively young program. With that said, Walton-Verona simply does not have the firepower to take down the elite teams in this class. DubVee was no match for LCA, and the Eagles will be a longshot in their own right.
LCA- See above. LCA righted their ship after a rough start to the season to rally for a 2-seed and give themselves a fighter's chance to win their Region, but considering how over-matched the Eagles were in their three loses, anything beyond a Regional Title seems unlikely.
Shelby Valley- Assuming the Wildcats when against Boyd County and knock off Middlesboro in the First Round, they may be the quietest 10-1 team in the State. There is a reason for that. The Wildcats have only played one team with a pulse in Ridgeview, VA and were running clocked. Drawing District 7 at least gives them a chance at a Regional Title, but their chances of anything beyond that are fleeting at best.
Lloyd- Simply put, the odds of Lloyd losing in Round 1 at home to Washington County are probably higher than their chances of beating CAL on the road in Round 2.Any chance Lloyd has revolves around a series of the most shocking playoff upsets we have ever seen.
Danville- The Defending Champs finished with a 4-6 regular season and a 3-seed in District 7. The Admirals have not had the play making or chemistry they needed all season. As a 3-seed they may have the best chance of making run of anyone in Class 2A, but unless Danville circles the wagons and shows us something more than what we have seen the last half of the season, the chances are better that they make a 2nd Round Exit than they even remotely challenge for a second straight title.
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