Bluegrasspreps' Class 5A Playoff Preview

  1. #1
    by JDEaston is offline Suspended
    Region 1

    This is by far the toughest region in class 5A top to bottom, with four of the class 5A top five teams residing within the region. That said, there is still a clear cut favorite to win the region. Bowling Green is simply a machine, posting a 10-0 regular season record, including a 5-0 record versus region one teams. As impressive as that is, the Purples left no doubt about who the best team in the region is by putting a running clock on all of their region one opponents. The Purples ultimately outscored their region one foes 250-22, which is a mind blowing stat considering three of those five opponents finished the season in the BGP top 5.

    If not for a second round matchup versus the Purples, Christian County would be one of the favorites to make it to the region final. The Colonels seem to be peaking at the right time, entering the playoffs coming off a 38-0 win over 4A #8 John Hardin. Christian County finished the regular season with an 8-2 record, their only losses coming from Bowling Green and double overtime loss to Owensboro.

    Speaking of Owensboro, they and Greenwood have the best shot at making it to the regional final for a rematch with the Purples. Both the Red Devils and the Gators finished the regular season with 8-2 records. Both also shared similar scores in their losses to the Purples, if you’re into comparing scores. Owensboro’s other loss was a bit of a surprise as rival 2A #4 Owensboro Catholic knocked them off 34-29 early in the season. Greenwoods other loss was to 4A #2 Franklin-Simpson. The Gators have to face a solid Graves County team in the opening round while the Red Devils get Grayson County. Look for these two to fight it out in the second round in what will be an all out war, with the home team (Owensboro) winning a close one.

    Region 1 Championship: Bowling Green 60 Owensboro 12


    Region 2

    This region is another one where one team stands out, that would be the Colonels of Covington Catholic. However, Covington Catholic is not the clear cut favorite like Bowling Green is in region one. While Covington Catholic is undefeated in district and region play, their recent game versus #9 Dixie Heights was closer than the final score indicated. With that said, the Colonels in blue still made the big plays necessary to pull away in the fourth quarter and posted a 35-12 win. Covington Catholic has been battle tested this season, accumulating some really solid wins along the way. The Colonels three losses have came from teams that most anyone in class 5A not named Bowling Green would have also lost to. So even with three losses to 6A #4 Ryle, 6A #5 Scott County and a top 5 Ohio team in Columbus St. Francis De Sales these Colonels are very, very good. The Colonels open the playoffs hosting Fairdale, however an interesting rematch with Highlands is looming in the second round, if the Bluebirds can pick up a first round win at Doss.

    Fern Creek finished the regular season ranked seventh in the BGP poll, with a regular season record of 8-2. The Tigers have played a mix of solid and mediocre teams to obtain their eight wins and two losses. Most of their wins have been lopsided, though Southern played the Tigers to within a touchdown, while Doss kept the score within 3 touchdowns. Fern Creek’s two losses have came from two very good teams, 6A #8 DuPont Manual and 2A #3 DeSales. Fern Creek kept both of those games within two scores, losing to Manual 14-0 and DeSales 27-14. The Tigers open the playoffs with a struggling Grant County team, with a showdown with #9 Dixie Heights likely in the second round.

    Dixie Heights is determined to get a second shot at Covington Catholic. If not for the momentum swing in favor of Covington Catholic in the district championship game, these Colonels would likely be the favorite to win the region at this point in time. Like Covington Catholic, these Colonels are battle tested as well, they just don’t sport as nice of a record, sitting at .500 on the season. That said, look for Dixie Heights to upset Fern Creek in the second round on their way to a rematch with the Colonels in blue.

    Region 2 Championship: Covington Catholic 42 Dixie Heights 20


    Region 3

    While it’s hard to discredit South Oldham nearly finishing the regular season undefeated, this region is still up in the air. South Oldham won all but three of their games convincingly and only suffered one loss along the way, a one point loss to 4A #7 Shelby County last week. The Dragon’s close wins were an early season 34-26 win over Doss and a recent 35-34 win over North Bullitt, that secured the district championship for the Dragons. That said, look for the Dragon’s to make it to the regional final once again to take on...We’ll get to that later.

    The Bullitt County teams have been in an absolute war with each other this year. All three of these teams finished district play at 3-2 with all having wins over each other. Exciting yes, hard to figure out, yes. Eventually North Bullitt finished second in the district behind South Oldham, due to their head to head win over Bullitt Central. Central finished third in the district while Bullitt East came in fourth, due to their lack of wins to contribute to the point system. That said, South Oldham swept the Bullitt County teams convincingly, with the exception of the close win over North Bullitt. Can the Eagles make a run and get a rematch with the Dragons of South Oldham?

    Madison Southern finished the regular season at 7-3 and are sitting just outside of the top ten rankings. They have played the toughest schedule of any of the region three favorites, but they also don’t really have a season defining win to hang their hat on. Their losses have come from an up and down 6A Tates Creek team, #8 Pulaski County and a solid 6A Madison Central team. Strength of schedule goes a long way in preparing for the playoffs so don’t be surprised when these Eagles fly to the regional final.

    Region 3 Championship: Madison Southern 21 South Oldham 17


    Region 4

    This region comes down to two rivals and a potential surprise team. Southwestern looks to cruise to the region final and they earned that right by beating rival Pulaski County 21-6 a couple of weeks ago. While Southwestern is the favorite to win the region, if the Maroons make it to the final expect a closer game than these two played in the regular season. The Warriors of Southwestern are entering the playoffs coming off from a one point loss to 3A #3 Lexington Catholic. Don’t look too much into that though as Lexington Catholic has played a very tough schedule and are peaking at the right time. Southwestern also suffered a one point loss early in the season to 2A #6 Danville as well as a loss to 3A #2 Corbin. Southwestern gave the Redhounds of Corbin one of their toughest tests of the season.

    Whitley County is the dark horse in this region. They finished the regular season at 8-2 and have earned some attention along the way. While they don’t have any spectacular wins, they are certainly a team to watch. A second round matchup versus Pulaski County is likely, which could be a very interesting game.

    Pulaski County wants to prove that they are are the best team in the county as well as the region. Without making it to the regional final that would be an impossible task. That said, expect the Maroons to make it to the regional final to face their rival Southwestern. Pulaski County finished the regular season at 8-2 even after their loss to rival Southwestern. The Maroons only other loss was to 6A #5 Scott County. The Maroons open the playoffs with Harlan County, a team they beat by 12 in their home opener. If Pulaski County can regain momentum and beat the Black Bears in the opening round, look for them to use that momentum to force a rematch against their rival Southwestern.

    Region 4 Championship: Southwestern 28 Pulaski County 21

    Semifinals: Bowling Green 49 Covington Catholic 28

    Semifinals: Southwestern 35 Madison Southern 14

    Finals: Bowling Green 56 Southwestern 12
    Last edited by JDEaston; Oct 31, 16 at 09:16 PM.

  2. #2
    Purple88's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 13
    Location
    Louisville
    Posts
    5,507

    Great article JD!

    I know Region 1 very well and of Region 2 well.

    I really don't know much about 3 and 4 other than Pulaski County.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out!

  3. #3

    Join Date
    Apr 14
    Posts
    509

    Great overall review. Thanks for putting it together. Do believe it will be South Oldham coming out of region 3 but thats my opinion. If its North Bullitt vs Madison Southern in the second round that will be one great game to watch.

  4. #4

    Join Date
    Jul 15
    Posts
    213

    Owensboro will not beat Bowling Green.. but don't be surprised if they don't beat Greenwood by atleast 2 TD's and give BG a much better game than the 1st time around. They have tweaked their offense a little since the 2 losses to OC and Bowling Green and seem to be rolling right now.

  5. #5

    Join Date
    Aug 13
    Posts
    8,506

    Quote Originally Posted by FootballBobcat View Post
    Great overall review. Thanks for putting it together. Do believe it will be South Oldham coming out of region 3 but thats my opinion. If its North Bullitt vs Madison Southern in the second round that will be one great game to watch.
    Thanks, FootballBobcat. Honestly region three is up in the air and a number of teams could end up winning it. South Oldham looks to be the best team on paper, but I suspect there may be an upset or two in that region. Things are so close between several teams in that region that I just went with my gut on this one.

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Aug 13
    Posts
    8,506

    Quote Originally Posted by zoneblitz2 View Post
    Owensboro will not beat Bowling Green.. but don't be surprised if they don't beat Greenwood by atleast 2 TD's and give BG a much better game than the 1st time around. They have tweaked their offense a little since the 2 losses to OC and Bowling Green and seem to be rolling right now.
    I thought Calipary had a trademark on the "tweak?" All kidding aside, what are they doing now that is different than earlier in the season? I'm not doubting you, just curious what they have changed. IMO, to have a chance to keep it close against this edition of the Purples, you have to be able to throw the ball enough to keep the defense honest. Otherwise Bowling Green's team speed is just going to fly to the ball and stuff the run, I don't care how big your Oline is.

  7. #7

    Join Date
    Feb 16
    Location
    NKY
    Posts
    833

    Somebody needs to make an article like this for the other classes. I've only seen this one and 3A so far.

  8. #8

    Join Date
    Sep 13
    Location
    Shang Ri La
    Posts
    2,769

    Quote Originally Posted by JDEaston View Post
    I thought Calipary had a trademark on the "tweak?" All kidding aside, what are they doing now that is different than earlier in the season? I'm not doubting you, just curious what they have changed. IMO, to have a chance to keep it close against this edition of the Purples, you have to be able to throw the ball enough to keep the defense honest. Otherwise Bowling Green's team speed is just going to fly to the ball and stuff the run, I don't care how big your Oline is.
    Its not just a fan talking about a tweak. They have went from a pro style spread back to the under center veer. They have turned the ball over much less which has been an improvement. Passing, not as much but they weren't effective throwing it before anyway. The efficiency is better. Fits the coaches better. Fits the qb better.

  9. #9
    Purple88's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 13
    Location
    Louisville
    Posts
    5,507

    Quote Originally Posted by zoneblitz2 View Post
    Owensboro will not beat Bowling Green.. but don't be surprised if they don't beat Greenwood by atleast 2 TD's and give BG a much better game than the 1st time around. They have tweaked their offense a little since the 2 losses to OC and Bowling Green and seem to be rolling right now.
    ZB,

    If both are fortunate enough to make the rematch it will be a really interesting game I think.

    I know O has added the veer wrinkle and I expect they will have more success vs BG than Greenwood did because your line is better. But I'm interested to see what kind of changes the Red Devils will try to make if it's 3rd and 6 or longer. That's the tough part - UNLESS you go with I'm going to get 3 yards on 3rd down and going for it to try to get 3 yards on 4th down. I like your QB, as he is a good athlete, but just think it's advantage BG D when they have to throw as has been seen the last 2 games. But every games different, that's why you play and momentum is a fickle elixir!

  10. #10

    Join Date
    Aug 13
    Posts
    8,506

    Quote Originally Posted by LVGambla32 View Post
    Somebody needs to make an article like this for the other classes. I've only seen this one and 3A so far.
    All classes with the exception of 6A have been covered. The home page is the easiest place to find them as they get buried up on the main board. I imagine 6A will be covered as well, it just may take a little more time to get it up.

  11. #11

    Join Date
    Feb 16
    Location
    NKY
    Posts
    833

    Quote Originally Posted by JDEaston View Post
    All classes with the exception of 6A have been covered. The home page is the easiest place to find them as they get buried up on the main board. I imagine 6A will be covered as well, it just may take a little more time to get it up.
    Thanks!

  12. #12

    Join Date
    Jul 15
    Posts
    213

    Quote Originally Posted by Purple88 View Post
    ZB,

    If both are fortunate enough to make the rematch it will be a really interesting game I think.

    I know O has added the veer wrinkle and I expect they will have more success vs BG than Greenwood did because your line is better. But I'm interested to see what kind of changes the Red Devils will try to make if it's 3rd and 6 or longer. That's the tough part - UNLESS you go with I'm going to get 3 yards on 3rd down and going for it to try to get 3 yards on 4th down. I like your QB, as he is a good athlete, but just think it's advantage BG D when they have to throw as has been seen the last 2 games. But every games different, that's why you play and momentum is a fickle elixir!
    The veer wrinkle does fit them a little better. They still have the homerun threat with Board but also the bigger backs and QB's getting yards and utilizing their O Line better who blocks better going downhill than side to side.

    As far as the passing game goes... it's still not good enough to beat BG but they have become a little more efficient with it.

    Fact is... BG is unreal this year and OHS doesn't have the horses to beat them. I do believe OHS will beat Greenwood by more than experts thank and I think if OHS can avoid turnovers and get a few stops the score will be more like BG 35-OHS 20 instead of BG 42- OHS 7.

  13. #13

    Join Date
    Aug 13
    Posts
    8,506

    Quote Originally Posted by Iam4thecats View Post
    Its not just a fan talking about a tweak. They have went from a pro style spread back to the under center veer. They have turned the ball over much less which has been an improvement. Passing, not as much but they weren't effective throwing it before anyway. The efficiency is better. Fits the coaches better. Fits the qb better.
    Interesting. I had noticed as the season went on that they have became more efficient on offense, at least from looking at weekly stat reports. Just wasn't sure what they were doing different. It should certainly help them in the playoffs and will likely get them a score or two against Bowling Green, I predicted that they get 2. I'm just not sure if anyone that doesn't pass the ball well can keep it close against this Bowling Green team. That's not a knock on anyone though, there are more really solid teams in 5A than most people recognize. The Purples are just on another level this season.

  14. #14
    Purple88's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 13
    Location
    Louisville
    Posts
    5,507

    Quote Originally Posted by zoneblitz2 View Post
    I do believe OHS will beat Greenwood by more than experts thank and I think if OHS can avoid turnovers and get a few stops the score will be more like BG 35-OHS 20 instead of BG 42- OHS 7.
    I will be watching that score and am half tempted to drive to Owensboro to watch that game, but if I do that I'll miss something at the El!
    I think those scores you mentioned are realistic because I think Owensboro will try to run the clock and won't allow BG extra possessions. Can't wait!!!

  15. #15

    Join Date
    Aug 13
    Posts
    8,506

    Quote Originally Posted by LVGambla32 View Post
    Thanks!
    No problem, the weekly notebooks are done for the season, but for future reference, they best place to find those is the homepage as well. They generally start popping up at the beginning of the week.

Top