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Region 1

In a Class that has a nice mix of balance across the 4 Regions, there is no denying Region 1 is probably the thickest with the elite of the class. Three of 2A’s top Contenders all reside in Region 1 in #1 Mayfield, #4 Owensboro Catholic and #6 Murray. In addition you can throw in Butler County who has flirted all season in the 10-12 range of the class.

Mayfield has the distinct advantage of home field advantage until the State Finals. Expect the Cardinals to parlay this into a Regional Finals birth. Butler County is a fun team and QB Rex Henderson may very well be the MVP of Class 2A, but the Bears simply do not have the Defense and depth to hang with Mayfield. We project Mayfield to prevail 48-20 in a game that Henderson leaves it all on the field.

Owensboro Catholic and Murray both know each other very well. Last season the Aces entered the 2nd Round 10-1 only to fall to the Tigers 20-9. Until that game Catholic had failed to score less than 34 points all season. It appears to be a collision course once again, both teams resemble their 2014 form as Catholic has rolled up the Offensive Efficiency stats and the Tigers have did everything but beat Mayfield on the scoreboard. Expect both to roll through Webster County and McLean County respectively setting up a marquee Second Round matchup. Expect a war.

This will set up yet another matchup of rivals Murray and Mayfield. The Tigers have played Mayfield about as well as any small school in Kentucky the past few years and have had the Cards on the ropes in the 4th Quarter only to fall short. Murray is one of the few teams who can match up athletically with Mayfield and every game becomes a war of attrition. Expect nothing less in this re-match, but once again it will come down to the Championship pedigree of Mayfield proving the difference in Winning Time.

Projected Regional Final: Mayfield 20 Murray 14

Region 2

The #10 Monroe County Falcons has acquitted themselves well moving down to 2A and has a formidable team. Few coaches in the Commonwealth do a better job than John Petett of building a team to peak in November, and he has positioned himself for one of those seasons once more. With that said, staring back at the Falcons in Round 2 will be a #3 DeSales Colts teams that is the 2-time defending 2A State Champs with some business left to take up with #2 CAL. I think most will agree that DeSales will enter this 2nd Round Matchup as a considerable favorite and for good reason, but expect Monroe to rally for their most gritty performance of the season and really test a DeSales team that is yet to find their Championship rhythm on Offense. If you want a shocker, it may happen here. But we project DeSales to grind out a tough win 17-7.

Christian Academy - Louisville stalked the pace in 2A most of the year after a couple early season losses. Coach Lefors’ team is now playing as good as anyone in the State outside of Class 6A and are poised for a deep post season run led by a stingy Defense and an Offense with just enough balance and big play ability to be dangerous. Glasgow has performed admirably for a team that started the year very young and took some tough losses, but the Scotties simply do not have the Offensive firepower to hang with CAL. The Centurions roll on to another Regional Final 34-7.

History is a cruel mistress and CAL has been living Groundhog Day in the Middle of November. The past three years has seen CAL win the regular season matchup only to watch DeSales advance to Black Friday when they met again in the Regional Finals. The Centurions schedule was a little tougher than past years and we expect them to squeak by in a war… but don’t be overly surprised if Lefors wakes up on November 21st hearing “I Got You Babe” on his alarm clock.

Projected Regional Final: Christian Academy - Louisville 20 DeSales 14

Region 3

Since the 6-Class System was implemented in 2007, Region 3 has represented the East in the State Finals every single season. Only once in that span has the NKY District not been the team reaching the Promised Land and all but one of those representatives has been named #7 Newport Central Catholic. The Thoroughbreds have established themselves as the Alpha Dog of the Eastern Semi-State and they once again enter as the top ranked team in Region 3 and battle hardened by a brutal Regular Season schedule. The Breds should have little issue dispersing Gallatin County in Round 1 but the 2nd Round matchup may be our first chance of a lower seed advancing. Covington Holy Cross was literally a handful of plays away from being the team to beat in the Region and should be able to upset Owen County. Expect a war between the two rival NKY Catholic schools but for the big game experience of NewCath and RB Jacob Smith to pull them through to the Regional Finals with a 38-30 win.

Walton-Verona had many doubters after their 0-4 start, but the Bearcats rallied to win 5 straight games against 2A Competition to earn the coveted home field advantage slot as the District 5 Champion. Newport is definitely the weakest link in District 6’s playoff lineup and the Bearcats should roll with ease setting up a matchup with #8 Lloyd Memorial. These two actually met in the season opener at W-V with Juggs claiming a 28-20 win. Both teams have improved since then but expect Lloyd’s big play ability to prove the difference in a 28-14 win.

Lloyd Memorial had NewCath on the ropes on October 16th. Holding a 2 score lead late in the 4th it looked like the Juggs were on their way to ending NewCath’s impressive run of consecutive wins against District Opponents. Like all great teams do, the Breds won the 4th Quarter and made huge plays down the stretch to pull out a very entertaining 29-26 victory. In the wake of that game both teams had to grimace at game film filled with crucial mistakes and Defensive breakdowns. Expect a cleaner game by both teams that comes down to the wire. Never bet against NewCath in Mid-November though.

Regional Final Projection: Newport Central Catholic 26 Lloyd Memorial 20

Region 4

Some programs simply make Kentucky High School Football better when they are good. #5 Danville was sorely missed on the elite stage of Kentucky small school football for the better part of a decade. Coach Clay Clevenger was tasked with rebuilding the powerhouse from Central Kentucky, and after a brutal 2014 campaign it seemed patience would be needed. The Admirals surpassed all expectations and roared to a 9-1 regular season and enter the post season as the favorite from the East to reach Bowling Green. Expect the Ads to roar through their first two playoff games with little resistance. Leslie County has been trending down since their 7-0 start and expect Somerset to pull the mild upset before Danville takes down the Bunnies 28-7.

In District 8 #9 Shelby Valley, unlike Danville, entered 2015 with higher expectations than any point in school history. The Defending Region 4 Champs return nearly all familiar faces, but a season opening ambush at Franklin County dismissed the Wildcats as a Title Threat in most people’s minds before they caught fire and rolled to a District 8 Title. The Wildcats Ground and Pound attack should provide a scoreboard lighting event that rivals Rockefeller Plaza in Round 2 against LCA, but expect the Wildcats to prevail 54-28.

Shelby Valley will make the lengthy trip to Central Kentucky as decided underdogs and many will toss buzzwords such as “Speed”, “Athletes” and “Pedigree” around. Don’t expect Shelby Valley to go kindly into the night. This team is experienced and tough and will be playing a chip on their shoulder after being embarrassed in the Semi-Finals and against Franklin County. The Wildcats will make Danville uncomfortable and may even make them play sloppy, but in the end the playmaking ability of VanCleave, Ray, and Dampier lead the Ads back to their rightful place in the Semi-Finals.

Regional Finals Projection: Danville 34 Shelby Valley 19

Projected Western Semi-Final: CAL 22 Mayfield 21
Projected Eastern Semi-Final: Danville 28 Newport Central Catholic 21

Projected Championship: CAL 21 Danville 7