2009 Hensley Rating System Rankings & Region Finals Predictions (ALL classes)

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    2009 Hensley Rating System Rankings & Region Finals Predictions (ALL classes)

    Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2009 postseason.

    The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

    Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

    Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please donít think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

    To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home teamís HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting teamís HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

    If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

    So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for each class and the HRS predictions:



    121.30 St. Xavier
    112.15 Highlands
    109.35 Simon Kenton
    109.25 Trinity (Louisville)
    106.05 Boyle County
    103.20 Bell County
    101.95 Male
    101.65 Fort Campbell
    99.65 Bowling Green
    98.40 Henry Clay
    97.45 Lexington Catholic
    95.75 John Hardin
    94.25 Lone Oak
    91.75 Scott County
    88.90 Johnson Central
    88.85 Marion County
    88.50 Lexington Christian
    87.30 Henderson County
    86.30 Christian County
    84.50 DeSales
    84.40 Greenwood
    83.10 Central
    83.05 Murray
    81.25 Letcher County Central
    81.20 Prestonsburg
    81.00 Western
    80.90 Newport Central Catholic
    79.90 Oldham County
    79.00 Mayfield
    78.85 Beechwood
    78.10 Allen County-Scottsville
    76.95 Corbin
    76.20 Green County
    74.30 Pulaski County
    74.10 Lawrence County
    71.95 Monroe County
    71.10 Somerset
    70.85 Sheldon Clark
    70.50 Breathitt County
    68.65 Hazard
    68.30 Paducah Tilghman
    67.35 Bellevue
    66.30 Crittenden County
    64.30 Henry County
    64.30 Russellville
    63.65 Pike County Central
    54.15 Raceland
    44.60 Harlan




    Class 1A
    Crittenden Co. (10-2) @ Mayfield (11-1) - MHS by 29.7
    Bellevue (9-3) @ Beechwood (8-4) - B'wood by 17.5
    Raceland (8-4) @ Lexington Christian (11-1) - LCA by 40.35
    Harlan (7-5) @ Hazard (8-4) - Hazard by 26.05

    Class 2A
    Fort Campbell (12-0) @ Murray (12-0) - FC by 12.6
    Monroe Co. (9-3) @ Green Co. (9-3) - GC by 10.25
    Newport Cent. Catholic (7-5) @ DeSales (9-3) - DHS by 9.9
    Corbin (10-2) @ Prestonburg (12-0) - PHS by 10.25

    Class 3A
    Paducah Tilghman (6-6) @ Russellville (8-4) - RHS by 2
    Henry Co. (10-2) @ Central (7-5) - CHS by 24.8
    Breathitt Co. (7-5) @ Somerset (12-0) - SHS by 6.6
    Sheldon Clark (7-4) @ Pike Co. Central (6-5) - SC by 1.2

    Class 4A
    Allen Co.-Scottsville (11-0) @ Lone Oak (12-0) - LO by 24.15
    Marion Co. (10-2) @ Western (7-5) - MC by 1.85
    Lexington Catholic (8-4) @ Boyle Co. (12-0) - BC by 14.5
    Lawrence Co. (12-0) @ Bell Co. (11-1) - BC by 35.1

    Class 5A
    Bowling Green (10-2) @ Christian Co. (8-4) - BG by 7.35
    Oldham Co. (8-4) @ John Hardin (12-0) - JH by 21.85
    Johnson Central (8-4) @ Highlands (12-0) - HHS by 29.25
    Letcher Co. Central (10-2) @ Pulaski Co. (9-3) - LCC by 0.95

    Class 6A
    Greenwood (9-3) @ Henderson Co. (9-3) - HC by 8.9
    Simon Kenton (11-1) @ St. Xavier (11-1) - X by 17.95
    Male (10-2) @ Trinity (8-4) - T by 13.3
    Henry Clay (10-2) @ Scott Co. (9-3) - HC by 0.65
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    Thanks for sharing.

    Later.

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    X and SK game you have at 17.95, thats about what I think the final will be 31-14 X.

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    ttt

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    I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?

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    Quote Originally Posted by UK fball fan View Post
    I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?
    I'm sure that is what happens when home field advantage is factored in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UK fball fan View Post
    I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?
    Quote Originally Posted by WHO'S NEXT? View Post
    I'm sure that is what happens when home field advantage is factored in.

    WHO'S NEXT? You are exactly correct. The way my stuff works is that you take the two teams rating, add six automatically to the home team, and then subtract the visitor's rating from the home team's adjusted rating. If the numbers are positive, the home team should wim...if the numbers are negative, the visiting team is selected to win.

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