1A Notebook - Playoffs Round 1 Crystal Ball, Crystal Clear

  1. #1
    by Voice of Reason is offline Premium Member
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    The BGP crystal ball was crystal clear in its look at round 1 of the playoffs. In last week's playoff preview, not only were all games predicted accurately - the margin of victories and upsets predicted were on target as well. Let's look region by region at last week and then see if the crystal ball can work it's magic again this week.

    Region 1

    There were no tough games to pick in this region. All first round games were expected to be lopsided wins and so they were. Region 1 favorite Russellville rolled through winless Caverna; #2 seed in the bracket Campbellsville had no problems with Fulton City; and Crittenden County blew out Fort Knox.

    The matchups are a little more balanced in round 2. Campbellsville had a tough season and seemed to improve going 4-3 over their last seven games. However, they are no match for the #4 team in 1A, Russellville. Look for the Panthers to get an easy win. It might not be a running clock win, but if not it will be close to it.

    The other game in this region pits Crittenden County against Bethlehem. This looks like a balanced matchup. Bethlehem is the slight favorite here but Crittenden County is capable of getting an upset win. The crystal ball says Bethlehem will get the win but it won't be easy.

    Region 2

    One of the 3 seed upsets happened in this region in round 1. Frankfort pulled on program pride and a tradition of playoff success as they pounded their way to a surprisingly lopsided 53-16 win over 2 seed Bellevue. The crystal ball called for the Frankfort upset but not by that score. Their opponent in round two will be a familiar one - Kentucky Country Day. KCD got off to a slow start versus Dayton before finally putting up the expected large margin of victory.

    On the other side of the bracket region favorite Beechwood put Eminence away very early. Their round 2 opponent will be Louisville Holy Cross. The crystal ball called for a 3 touchdown win in round 1 versus Ludlow and Holy Cross delivered with a 38-12 victory.

    Round 2 features two games that will be more challenging battles than what top seeds Beechwood and Kentucky Country Day faced in round 1. Kentucky Country Day will face a rematch with district opponent Frankfort. Frankfort impressed with their margin of victory in round 1 and they gave Country Day a serious challenge in the first meeting. Frankfort led 8-6 in the first half and trailed 12-8 at halftime before finally falling by a score of 33-24. The Panthers are putting the crystal ball to their toughest test in trying to pick this one. It is hard to pick against Frankfort in early round playoff games but look for Kentucky Country Day to eek out a 6 point win.

    Beechwood will face a more serious challenge than round 1. Louisville Holy Cross faced the Tigers in last year's playoffs and tested them well before losing 21-9. This Holy Cross team does not look quite as strong as last year's. Beechwood's speed and execution will be too much on their home turf. This one might be close early but the Tigers will walk away with a clear cut victory.

    Region 3

    Region 3 is the red zone of 1A. Two of the top games in round 1 were in this region. The #3 ranked Raceland Rams faced the Bishop Brossart Mustangs who tied for first in their district. Raceland put their power in gear and busted the Mustangs 47-21. That moves the Rams on to face another team in round 2 who tied for first in their district, Nicholas County, who had a bye in round 1.

    The other top matchup was in the region's lower bracket. Fairview was the 3 seed and traveled to Bracken County. The crystal ball called for an upset win for the Eagles and they were able to make that call the right one as they put the Polar Bears on ice for the year by a score of 34-22. The Polar Bears fought back valiantly after trailing big but fell short. It was a very good season in Bracken County despite the round 1 loss. Paintsville showed everyone why they are #1 in 1A as they had no problems running over the Paris Greyhounds.

    The marquee matchup in 1A in round 2 will be the top 10 ranked face off of Raceland at Nicholas County. Despite the 9-1 record, Nicholas County looks to be no match for the Rams. That will move the Rams on to the re-match they want versus Paintsville. Paintsville shut out Fairview 36-0 in their regular season district game and nothing appears to have changed that will make the playoff game any different. Paintsville will get the easy win.

    Region 4

    There was no drama in round 1 in this region. All four games were predicted to be lopsided wins and that is how they all played out - Williamsburg over South Floyd 69-6; Hazard dominating Harlan 55-24; Pineville trouncing Jenkins 69-14; and Pikeville overwhelming Lynn Camp 55-3.

    One of the round 2 battles looks like a continuation of the blowouts in this region. Defending state champion Pikeville is too strong and should make short work of Pineville. The other round 2 game may be the best 1A matchup in round 2 - Hazard at Williamsburg. Both these programs are ranked in the top 10, have been to recent state title games and have winning traditions. The crystal ball projected a Hazard win in the preview and will not change that prediction here. The Bulldogs will win by a touchdown or less.

    Summary

    The top favorites in 1A should move on to round 3 this Friday. There is certainly potential for upsets of some teams ranked in the bottom half of the top 10, but it would be a shocker if one of the top 5 contenders loses Friday night. Here are the top round 2 games in 1A:

    1. Hazard at Williamsburg
    2. Frankfort at Kentucky Country Day
    3. Crittenden County at Bethlehem
    4. Raceland at Nicholas County
    5. Holy Cross at Beechwood
    Last edited by Voice of Reason; Nov 8, 16 at 02:21 AM.

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    Great job, VOR. The dreaded BYE week will raise its' ugliness as both Nicholas and Bethlem will experience all its' negatives. Nicholas will see a running clock in the 3rd, and Bethlem will lose late in an upset.

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    HT721's Avatar
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    I don't understand what Hazard has accomplished to make everyone feel like they are going to come to Williamsburg and win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HT721 View Post
    I don't understand what Hazard has accomplished to make everyone feel like they are going to come to Williamsburg and win.
    That is why this game is the #1 game to see in 1A this week. Very evenly matched teams. The best win for Williamsburg is over 4-7 Frankfort. Hazard has two wins over better teams than Frankfort - Fairview and 5A Letcher County Central (4-7 but a 5A school). So there is something Hazard has accomplished that makes people think Hazard can beat Williamsburg.

    If you look at everything else these two teams look very even. There are two common opponents - Harlan (both beat Harlan) and Somerset (both lost). Both played very well against their toughest opponent of the year - Lexington Christian Academy 32 Williamsburg 22; Pikeville 29 Hazard 21.

    A very tough game to predict. Virtually the definition of a tossup. But if you have to pick a team the resume's give a slight edge to Hazard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    That is why this game is the #1 game to see in 1A this week. Very evenly matched teams. The best win for Williamsburg is over 4-7 Frankfort. Hazard has two wins over better teams than Frankfort - Fairview and 5A Letcher County Central (4-7 but a 5A school). So there is something Hazard has accomplished that makes people think Hazard can beat Williamsburg.

    If you look at everything else these two teams look very even. There are two common opponents - Harlan (both beat Harlan) and Somerset (both lost). Both played very well against their toughest opponent of the year - Lexington Christian Academy 32 Williamsburg 22; Pikeville 29 Hazard 21.

    A very tough game to predict. Virtually the definition of a tossup. But if you have to pick a team the resume's give a slight edge to Hazard.
    Beating Letcher Central or Perry Central (both 5A) aren't much to write home about in my opinion. Farview may be slightly better than Frankfort, but, Williamsburg had some confidence issues early in the season it seemed to me after losing the first three. Reverse the schedules and I believe Williamsburg is sitting at 9-2 and Hazard is sitting at 7-4. I guess the thing that irks me is most everyone seems very confident Hazard is going to pull this out, and there is just nothing on paper that makes this game seem like a gimme either way. It's the pure definition of toss-up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HT721 View Post
    I don't understand what Hazard has accomplished to make everyone feel like they are going to come to Williamsburg and win.
    Hazard has some okay wins as pointed out but most of there games have been won on the road. They did lose to Pikeville but without the turnovers then that game could of went the other way. Pikeville played a turnover free game and only had 1 penalty the whole game. Hazard had like 16 which most where false starts.. But enough about that game and back to this one.. Hazards offense has started clicking at the right time and mainly the passing game which had been absent weeks before. For me the question is can they stop the run and pass both from a balanced offense?

    I do feel Williamsburg can and will score sum but can they score enough?

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    I think Williamsburg may pull the upset this week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RAMCAT77 View Post
    I think Williamsburg may pull the upset this week.

    No doubt that could happen, especially at Williamsburg. I don't think anyone will be too surprised if Williamsburg wins. That would be an upset but definitely not a shocker.

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