Originally Posted by JokersWild24
Here's my take on that:
Barring a team upsetting Warren Central or Bowling Green in the district tournament, there is no scenario that I can see a team besides those two or Monroe County winning the region. Clinton County is probably the dark horse but as you've pointed out, a lot of pitfalls for them in a region draw. If one of 14th District teams were to lose before region, then I could see Clinton winning it if they draw opposite the 14th champion and Monroe County. Barren County, Russell County, and Logan County are teams I can see winning a single game, but not three.
I think Monroe County would possibly prefer to draw the 14th District runner-up in the first round. That way they'll have days to get ready, then also wouldn't have to play a back to back against the 14th District representatives in the semis and finals. If history has taught us one thing, it's that one of the 14th District teams will make it. There hasn't been a final with no 14th District team since 2000, and there've been eight times where both reps have made it. And either Warren Central or Bowling Green have been in every single one of those finals since 2000, and they've combined for every title except one since 2002. Not dark a picture enough? How about that Russellville in 1998 and 2001 is the only team in the last 30 years to beat both 14th District teams on their way to the title.
Point being that it'll be tough for anyone outside the 14th District to win it because you're likely going to have to beat both of them. Monroe County is the team I see with a chance to do it. Anyone else will need help.