Jobs Report - Less than forecast

Originally Posted by acemona

imagine if we weren't practicing austerity and not laying off all of those teachers that we did in May and were actually hiring them.

You know, many parts of the public sector are needed and vital, but what part of, "The public sector cannot drive the economy forward." do you not understand? Public sector job growth has been higher than private sector growth under this administration, and where has that gotten us. The government cannot spend us out of the problem, because spending is the problem.

Only by reducing government spending and increasing private sector growth can we possibly hope to right this ship.

Originally Posted by coldweatherfan

You know, many parts of the public sector are needed and vital, but what part of, "The public sector cannot drive the economy forward." do you not understand? Public sector job growth has been higher than private sector growth under this administration, and where has that gotten us. The government cannot spend us out of the problem, because spending is the problem.

Only by reducing government spending and increasing private sector growth can we possibly hope to right this ship.

The trend did not last.

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - up, Actual - TBD (but likely up dramatically)

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 386,000

"This was well above the consensus forecast of 365,000 and suggests ongoing weakness in the labor market."


The updated number from the previous week (revised) increased by 2,000. The updated (and supposedly more accurate) revised number has always been higher that the 'initial' number. I am surprised that the 'initial' was reported so high. But it could be that the holiday week dampened the claims and then last there was a 'catch up'.

Better initial news, last week revised upward (as always)

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD - likely down


Weekly jobless claims drop by 35K - CBS News

Glad its a number in a positive direction. Wish it was better.

From the 2nd quarter results coming out companies are not optimistic about 3Q. Lexmark took a big hit for 2Q and guided lower for Q3. That theme is too common. Hopefully layoffs slow even into this new slowdown but that may be wishful thinking. Hiring will likely be dead in this situation.

UE claims up


March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - TBD (likely up), Reported - up, Actual - TBD (likely up)

Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected | Reuters

Last weeks number revised upward (as usual). New claims higher. Articles says 'less than expected'. Not sure what was expected. In a strong or even moderate recovery you would expect decreasing numbers until it is in the low 300,000s.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 370,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 2,750 to 365,500, the lowest in four months.

If the seemly universal trend continues the number will likely be 'revised' next to a higher number (the revised has always been higher since I started tracking). So the estimate of 370,000 may still come true. But that will be next weeks update.

Not terrible but not a good recovery.

Locally there have been reports of coal mine operations shuttering. And it has been announced that Comair will cease operations - an impact to Norther Kentucky as it is (was) a strong Comair hub. Kentucky was the only state to record more than 1,000 new claims for the week ending July 28 according to DOL data.

See this link: ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State	Change		State Supplied Comment
KY	+4,073		No comment.

July - so is it gain 163,000 jobs or lose 1,200,000 (1.2M) jobs?


Wait, the U.S. economy actually lost 1.2 million jobs in July?

The U.S. economy lost 1.2 million jobs between June and July. But that’s not how it got reported. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs figures for July, it said the economy gained 163,000 jobs. So what gives?

The coming 'financial cliff' threatens jobs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/06/bu...pagewanted=all

Highlights of article:

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that factory orders unexpectedly fell 0.5 percent in June from the previous month,
...

“Economists generally overstate the effects of uncertainty on spending, but in this case it does seem to be significant,” he added. “It’s at the macro- and microeconomic levels.”

...

With many Fortune 500 companies now setting budgets and planning for 2013, chief executives say they cannot afford to hope for the best.

...

As a consequence, Mr. Cutler lowered Eaton’s projected results for 2012 in late July, adding that he sees particular weakness in the heavy-duty truck market.

...

“It’s totally irresponsible and absolutely insane,” said Evan R. Gaddis, the president of the electrical manufacturers’ group. “The two parties are really dug in. Companies see the writing on the wall and business decisions are now being made on this.”

...

“Everyone is sitting back and hunkering down,” she said.

Election years create uncertainty. But with 'automatic' cuts and other uncertainty from government it is worse this year.

As noted companies are their 2013 budget cycle NOW. Unfortunately, they will plan conservatively. That will negatively impact jobs through the remainder of the year and into 2013.

Thanks Washington...

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
August 9: Reported - 361,000

Initial Jobless Claims Lower Than Expected « Economics Analytics Research

Any drop is good news. However, some negative stats are in this weeks report, specifically continuing claims jumped.

Continuing claims – reported on a one-week lag – rose 53,000 to 3,332,000 from the prior week’s 3,279,000, revised from the originally reported 3,272,000.

While the drop in initial claims was good news for a labor market said to be recovering, the sharp increase in continuing claims underscored the difficult labor market. The jump in continuing claims – the steepest week-week rise since the end of May – came just two days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a four year high in the number of job openings.


Continuing claims moved to the highest level since the end of May.

Up from the revised number last week.


March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported down, Actual - down
August 16: Reported - 366,000

Weekly Jobless Claims Tick Up 2K | Fox Business

As usual, the revised number was raised. The trend is not good as we really need this number to come down into the low 300s for a 'strong recovery'.

There were slight drops in ongoing. But almost statistically insignificant and some of that is likely to due to expiration of benefits.

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up, Actual - up
August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported down, Actual - down
August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000
August 23: Reported - 372,000.

Still not going in the right direction.

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8000, Actual - up 10,000
August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported down 6000, Actual - down 3000
August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000
August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000
August 30: Reported - 374,000.


For best accuracy use the revised value.


The usually understatement of 2,000 (Reported vs. Revised) trend holds. Statistically this constant under count shows signs of manipulation. 2,000 almost every week to good side for months and months? If you are on a roll this consistent then you should be at Vegas and not working at BLS.

Originally Posted by Bluegrasscard

The usually understatement of 2,000 (Reported vs. Revised) trend holds. Statistically this constant under count shows signs of manipulation. 2,000 almost every week to good side for months and months? If you are on a roll this consistent then you should be at Vegas and not working at BLS.

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up
May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up
June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down
July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000
July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000
July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000
August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8000, Actual - up 10,000
August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported down 6000, Actual - down 3000
August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000
August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000
August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000
September 6: Reported - 365,000.

Last weeks number was revised upward (as usual) but instead of the 2000 it was a miss of 3000. This gives the 'good news' with today's initial number more good to it.

Supposedly when the number is below 375,000 the UE official rate is supposed to be lower.

More bad news on jobs:Jobs growth cools in August, seen forcing Fed's hand - Yahoo! Finance

Our entire country has been jobbed for nearly 4 years now.

Originally Posted by spindoc

Our entire country has been jobbed for nearly 4 years now.

Originally Posted by cammando

More bad news on jobs:Jobs growth cools in August, seen forcing Fed's hand - Yahoo! Finance

Some more stats in this Bloomberg article: Payrolls in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in August - Bloomberg

Notables:
July adjustment - initial estimate was gain of 163,000 jobs, revised is only 141,000. 22,000 less 'new jobs' that previous reported.

August INITIAL number on new jobs - 96,000. Given the trend of revised number this is probably over stated. Estimate was for 130,000. So even the likely overstatement is way off conservative estimates.

Leaving the job market - 368,000. Lets see that again: 368,000 people left the work force in August. Quit trying. Gave up. Almost 4 times the claimed (likely overstated) number of new jobs. 4 times as many people are leaving the workforce discouraged than there are 'new jobs'. I am not sure how they measure this. It may be when they stop paying UE benefits. The number of 99ers who are still out of work is growing.

Participation rate fell to 63.5. Lowest since the 1981 recession.

Overall rate - 8.1% The only way this went down was with the lower participation rate. Though lower, the number is going for down for the wrong reason.

Originally Posted by Bluegrasscard

Some more stats in this Bloomberg article: Payrolls in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in August - Bloomberg

Notables:
July adjustment - initial estimate was gain of 163,000 jobs, revised is only 141,000. 22,000 less 'new jobs' that previous reported.

August INITIAL number on new jobs - 96,000. Given the trend of revised number this is probably over stated. Estimate was for 130,000. So even the likely overstatement is way off conservative estimates.

Leaving the job market - 368,000. Lets see that again: 368,000 people left the work force in August. Quit trying. Gave up. Almost 4 times the claimed (likely overstated) number of new jobs. 4 times as many people are leaving the workforce discouraged than there are 'new jobs'. I am not sure how they measure this. It may be when they stop paying UE benefits. The number of 99ers who are still out of work is growing.

Participation rate fell to 63.5. Lowest since the 1981 recession.

Overall rate - 8.1% The only way this went down was with the lower participation rate. Though lower, the number is going for down for the wrong reason.

And some people want four more years....

Originally Posted by Clyde

Another bad jobs reports. 80k jobs added.

226k jobs added per month in the 1st quarter.
75k job added per month in the 2nd quarter.

I think an interesting statistic would be average income of added jobs. Some reports are saying that the jobs being created are generaly unskilled/service industry/low pay jobs and the jobs being lost are generally higher paying. I recall in the early part of W's first term, there was job growth but his detractors continued to bring up the fact that those new jobs were low paying and the jobs being lost were high paying so in the long run there really was not "true" job growth so to speak.

If true, I think the lesson would be that with the amount of cheap labor overseas, we are crazy if we think Americans will be able to find well paying jobs with only a high school diploma, continued job training and/or education is imperative for high paying jobs.

Originally Posted by Bluegrasscard

Leaving the job market - 368,000. Lets see that again: 368,000 people left the work force in August. Quit trying. Gave up. Almost 4 times the claimed (likely overstated) number of new jobs. 4 times as many people are leaving the workforce discouraged than there are 'new jobs'. I am not sure how they measure this. It may be when they stop paying UE benefits. The number of 99ers who are still out of work is growing.

I wonder how many of that 368,000 are retirees? With the baby boom at retirement age, I have to believe each month numerous people are not leaving the market due to layoffs or they are discouraged workers no longer looking for work, they simply retired.