Iowa Thoughts/Predictions

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  1. #16
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clyde View Post
    Hmmmm ... good points. Iowa and New Hampshire certainly can give legitimacy to an underdog candidate. From that point of view, Bernie Sanders has the most on the line tonight. Yet, even if he wins Iowa and he will win New Hampshire, he is almost surely going to get smoked after that. I see Bernie having little chance in the multitude of southern state primaries that follow these first two. The good news for Bernie is the money is flowing into his campaign so he won't be able to hang around for a while regardless of results.

    On the Republican side, Iowa is going to have little impact on the top five or six candidates. They all have too much money on hand.
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  2. #17
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    All Republicans have lost votes over the past couple weeks except ..... Rubio and Rand Paul.

  3. #18

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    My thoughts are: Why in the hell, Iowa? Are you kidding me? There are not too many states that are less representative of the country as a whole. Eighty-seven percent(at least) is white, mostly old white guys. Yet, we allow Iowa(and then New Hampshire...another state that is a very poor representation of the nation as a whole) to determine the momentum for the remainder of the primary election. Iowa and New Hampshire can ignite a campaign or cause it to crash and burn. Why should states like Iowa and NH be so much of a determining factor when they so poorly represent the country in total?

  4. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Science Friction View Post
    My thoughts are: Why in the hell, Iowa? Are you kidding me? There are not too many states that are less representative of the country as a whole. Eighty-seven percent(at least) is white, mostly old white guys. Yet, we allow Iowa(and then New Hampshire...another state that is a very poor representation of the nation as a whole) to determine the momentum for the remainder of the primary election. Iowa and New Hampshire can ignite a campaign or cause it to crash and burn. Why should states like Iowa and NH be so much of a determining factor when they so poorly represent the country in total?
    The Primaries have to begin somewhere and small media markets like Iowa and New Hampshire make it possible for all candidates to be able to get out their message to the voters and compete without breaking the bank right off the bat. If we began with a state like Cali or NY, only the best funded candidates could make a go of it because of the many, very expensive advertising markets that need to be hit in states like that.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Science Friction View Post
    My thoughts are: Why in the hell, Iowa? Are you kidding me? There are not too many states that are less representative of the country as a whole. Eighty-seven percent(at least) is white, mostly old white guys. Yet, we allow Iowa(and then New Hampshire...another state that is a very poor representation of the nation as a whole) to determine the momentum for the remainder of the primary election. Iowa and New Hampshire can ignite a campaign or cause it to crash and burn. Why should states like Iowa and NH be so much of a determining factor when they so poorly represent the country in total?
    Don't complain too much, let them have it. They run ads in iowa non-stop for a year. Would be hell on earth.

  6. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by MayfieldFan View Post
    Don't complain too much, let them have it. They run ads in iowa non-stop for a year. Would be hell on earth.
    True enough.

  7. #22
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    I think Trump win by a smaller margin than expected and I also believe Rubio has a better showing than expected.

    I think Trump ends up closer to 25% than the 28% he's polling at. Cruz around 23% and Rubio will sneak up close to or just over 20%.

    I think Clinton either beats Sanders easily or loses if it's close.

  8. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jumper_Dad View Post
    I think Trump win by a smaller margin than expected and I also believe Rubio has a better showing than expected.

    I think Trump ends up closer to 25% than the 28% he's polling at. Cruz around 23% and Rubio will sneak up close to or just over 20%.

    I think Clinton either beats Sanders easily or loses if it's close.

    I personally like Paul much better than Rubio. It's quite clear that most everything that comes out of No Show's mouth has been well-rehearsed. It's talking point after talking point. Throw in some Jesus every once in awhile to satisfy the Rapture hopefuls and then another well-practiced soliloquy Plus, it's flip and flop and flop and flip and then when he's finally confronted with one of his flips, he denies ever flipping. Yep, I won't be voting for him. Besides, he wouldn't show up for his inaugural anyway.

  9. #24

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    As a frame of reference, this is the most recent Des Moines Register poll, which has been accurate in past caucuses:

    Trump 28
    Cruz 23
    Rubio 15

    Clinton 45
    Sanders 42

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Twotoplace View Post
    As a frame of reference, this is the most recent Des Moines Register poll, which has been accurate in past caucuses:

    Trump 28
    Cruz 23
    Rubio 15

    Clinton 45
    Sanders 42
    I'd like to see Bern take Hillary to the hole for an old-fashioned three pointer and send that puppy into overtime!

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Science Friction View Post
    I personally like Paul much better than Rubio. It's quite clear that most everything that comes out of No Show's mouth has been well-rehearsed. It's talking point after talking point. Throw in some Jesus every once in awhile to satisfy the Rapture hopefuls and then another well-practiced soliloquy Plus, it's flip and flop and flop and flip and then when he's finally confronted with one of his flips, he denies ever flipping. Yep, I won't be voting for him. Besides, he wouldn't show up for his inaugural anyway.
    Yet I'll bet you voted for "Present" Obama, Mr. "I was was against gay marriage before I was for it"...and you'll be voting for I Mrs. "I voted for the Iraq war before I was against it."

    Mrs Clinton's worst three periods of missed votes while running for President
    Oct-Dec 2007 missed 71-85 votes 83%
    Jan-Mar 2008 missed 38-85 votes 45%
    Apr-Jun 2008 missed 47-60 votes 78%

    Rubio's worst three periods of missed votes while running for President
    Apr-June 2015 missed 28-85 votes 33%
    Jul-Sep 2015 missed 28-52 votes 54%
    Oct-Dec 2015 missed 39-67 votes 58.2%

    So are you out your high sense of fairness going to start referring to Mrs. Clinton and Mrs. No Show?

  12. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jumper_Dad View Post
    Yet I'll bet you voted for "Present" Obama, Mr. "I was was against gay marriage before I was for it"...and you'll be voting for I Mrs. "I voted for the Iraq war before I was against it."

    Mrs Clinton's worst three periods of missed votes while running for President
    Oct-Dec 2007 missed 71-85 votes 83%
    Jan-Mar 2008 missed 38-85 votes 45%
    Apr-Jun 2008 missed 47-60 votes 78%

    Rubio's worst three periods of missed votes while running for President
    Apr-June 2015 missed 28-85 votes 33%
    Jul-Sep 2015 missed 28-52 votes 54%
    Oct-Dec 2015 missed 39-67 votes 58.2%

    So are you out your high sense of fairness going to start referring to Mrs. Clinton and Mrs. No Show?
    When I meet her during this election cycle, I will address her as Madame Secretary. If I meet her again after Jan 20, 2017 ,I will address her as Madame President.

  13. #28

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    Facts are stubborn things .. LOL

    Anyway my heart says BERNIE for the Dems, Rubio for the R's . My head says Bernie for Dems by 1 % and Trump by 3 % on the R side .

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getslow View Post
    The person for whom Iowa matters most is not any of the four people currently at first or second in their party's polling. It matters most for Marco Rubio.

    Polling has him solidly third and if he does even better than that, then I think the coalescing will begin around him for those horrified by Trump and with misgivings about Cruz.
    You nailed it in my opinion.

  15. #30
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    I think Bobby Weir and The Grateful Dead summed up this election the best with "Throwing Stones."

    "So the kids they dance, and shake their bones
    And the politician's throwing stones
    Singing ashes to ashes all fall down
    Ashes to ashes all fall down

    Heartless powers try to tell us what to think
    If the spirit's sleeping, then the flesh is ink, yeah
    History's page, it is thusly carved in stone
    The future's here, we are it, we are on our own
    On our own. On our own. On our own."

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