The Oil Bubble - TARP (TBTF bank bailout) 2.0 ?

  1. #1

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    The Oil Bubble - TARP (TBTF bank bailout) 2.0 ?

    I saw this article and looked deepter into it:

    Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears | Zero Hedge

    The concept above is that the Sarbanes Oxly rule of mark-to-market was being suspended to keep the banks protected from the inevitable loss of loans to oil companies. Basically the loans can not be repaid and the assets that back the loans have no value since they are oil rigs (that no one needs) and oil land grants (that no one wants).

    So unlike the housing the bubble where there were valuable assets in most of the 'toxic' bundled loads packages, here there the assets backing the loan are worthless themselves for the most part. A house could not be sold for what the loan was - but at least it could be sold for SOMETHING. Here - the assets have no market at all and are currently (with oil at $30 a barrell) worthless in total.

    This article below analyzes the article above. It concludes 'mark-to-market' was already mostly suspended after the 2008 crisis. But it does validate that the banks are in big trouble. They can not hid the worthless loans forever and the price of oil seems to be structural (long term) and not cyclical (short term). At some point the banks will have to write off the loans.

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Rumors on Mark-to-Mark Accounting and Loan Loss Provisions: What's the Real Story?

    If you hear about another 'bank bailout' - do not be surprised.

    Cheap oil / gasoline is great. As long as its not too cheap...
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  2. #2
    LIPTON BASH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluegrasscard View Post
    I saw this article and looked deepter into it:

    Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears | Zero Hedge

    The concept above is that the Sarbanes Oxly rule of mark-to-market was being suspended to keep the banks protected from the inevitable loss of loans to oil companies. Basically the loans can not be repaid and the assets that back the loans have no value since they are oil rigs (that no one needs) and oil land grants (that no one wants).

    So unlike the housing the bubble where there were valuable assets in most of the 'toxic' bundled loads packages, here there the assets backing the loan are worthless themselves for the most part. A house could not be sold for what the loan was - but at least it could be sold for SOMETHING. Here - the assets have no market at all and are currently (with oil at $30 a barrell) worthless in total.

    This article below analyzes the article above. It concludes 'mark-to-market' was already mostly suspended after the 2008 crisis. But it does validate that the banks are in big trouble. They can not hid the worthless loans forever and the price of oil seems to be structural (long term) and not cyclical (short term). At some point the banks will have to write off the loans.

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Rumors on Mark-to-Mark Accounting and Loan Loss Provisions: What's the Real Story?

    If you hear about another 'bank bailout' - do not be surprised.

    Cheap oil / gasoline is great. As long as its not too cheap...
    I guess one area I'd nit pick is calling the oil and it's production worthless. Like the house there is some tangible value.

  3. #3
    Hellcats's Avatar
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    Ouch. The next president will get this one on Inauguration Day. With Iran entering the market this will get worse and worse.

  4. #4
    John Anthony's Avatar
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    So about that peak oil...

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