Cold weather causes murder - Gun Control - Obama

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    Cold weather causes murder - Gun Control - Obama

    Interesting Facebook Fodder

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    So does cold weather cause murder?

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    So does cold weather cause murder?
    I mean come on Ru I think based off the numbers it'd be pretty hard to refute those findings.

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    806 murders in one year is just crazy.

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    Based on what the Chicago PD says, it's the opposite. Good thing it's not warm in Chicago year round.

    According to the 2005 Homicide Report of the Chicago Police Department, the murder clearance rate (in terms of an arrest being made within two years of the homicide) has dropped from over 70% for 1991 to under 60% for 2003. Summer months have significantly higher murder rates, and over 70% of murders take place between 7PM and 5AM.
    Crime in Chicago - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    So does cold weather cause murder?
    Either Temp or that fact that Chicago has way more non-hispanic whites.

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    I guess, it would be fair to point out that Chicago didn't have anywhere near 806 homicides in 2012 but who could be bothered with such facts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2 Humped Camel View Post
    I guess, it would be fair to point out that Chicago didn't have anywhere near 806 homicides in 2012 but who could be bothered with such facts.
    You are Correct, here are the facts since you didn't post them...
    Houston 195 Houston homicides take a sharp tumble - Houston Chronicle
    Chicago 532 Report: 532 Murdered in Chicago in 2012 | The Weekly Standard

    Still pretty significant difference in two otherwise similar cities...

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    As a side note, of course I am kidding about cold weather causing murder and it becomes confusing because I think there is a very strong correlation (looking for the right word here) between warm weather and murder.

    Obviously this all has little or nothing to do with cold weather.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    As a side note, of course I am kidding about cold weather causing murder and it becomes confusing because I think there is a very strong correlation (looking for the right word here) between warm weather and murder.

    Obviously this all has little or nothing to do with cold weather.
    True, as you know when the weather gets warm the calls pick up significantly.

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    I find it interesting that this little graph with cherry picked data is being used as a correlation with gun ownership and murder rate. For example NY city had a murder rate of roughley 5.0/100k in 2012 with a much greater population density than either Chicago or Houston (way more dense than Houston). NY city also has what can be argued as the toughest gun laws/restrictions in the country. Using the same logic, wouldn't this correlate to tough gun laws and restrictions reduce murder rates? These little things make for great shares on Facebook but they are full of poor logic, cherry picked data and often flat out false information. I guess what I'm asking is why can't there be an honest debate in this country without everything being reduced to soundbites and cute little charts?
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    2HC,

    I assume you are making a general statement. I realize I can be slightly over the top at times but I did state up front this is Facebook Fodder.

    You do have to admit, it is interesting.

    I am not a statistics guy but for arguments sake how about throwing NY out and looking for some other cities similar to Chicago and Houston to see if we see any pattern?

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    2HC,

    I assume you are making a general statement. I realize I can be slightly over the top at times but I did state up front this is Facebook Fodder.

    You do have to admit, it is interesting.

    I am not a statistics guy but for arguments sake how about throwing NY out and looking for some other cities similar to Chicago and Houston to see if we see any pattern?
    I was speaking in general terms. As to your question that is very difficult because not only are demographics, gun laws and popluation a factor, I think population density is a huge factor in these things. It suggests just how urban an environment may be which correlates with gang activity. For example the population denisty of Houston is 3,500/SqMi which is similar to cities like Toledo OH and Omaha NE. Chicago's density is 11,800/SqMi and only compares to a few cities, Philadelphia (411 murders in 12) and Miami (Murder rate of 16.8/100k, 2011 #'s couldn't find 2012) which are both similar to Chicago. Florida has the most hands off gun laws as anywhere in the country and their biggest city has murder rates similar to Chicago. Houston was picked for a very specific reason, it's a huge city population wise (4th biggest) and closest to Chicago but it is very spread out. It's over twice as big as Chicago in land area even though it has fewer people which indicates to me it's not as prone to gang violence. Way to many factors to put into a chart and that be used as conclusive evidence on either side of the debate.

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    Thanks for adding balance to the "debate." This subject is way too heavy for me other than I like learning from the rest of you.

    Anyone else?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2 Humped Camel View Post
    I was speaking in general terms. As to your question that is very difficult because not only are demographics, gun laws and popluation a factor, I think population density is a huge factor in these things. It suggests just how urban an environment may be which correlates with gang activity. For example the population denisty of Houston is 3,500/SqMi which is similar to cities like Toledo OH and Omaha NE. Chicago's density is 11,800/SqMi and only compares to a few cities, Philadelphia (411 murders in 12) and Miami (Murder rate of 16.8/100k, 2011 #'s couldn't find 2012) which are both similar to Chicago. Florida has the most hands off gun laws as anywhere in the country and their biggest city has murder rates similar to Chicago. Houston was picked for a very specific reason, it's a huge city population wise (4th biggest) and closest to Chicago but it is very spread out. It's over twice as big as Chicago in land area even though it has fewer people which indicates to me it's not as prone to gang violence. Way to many factors to put into a chart and that be used as conclusive evidence on either side of the debate.
    Houston Texas Is Considered a Home to Drug Cartels - YouTube
    Zetas Drug Cartel Allegedly Conducts 'Mexico-Style Attack' near Houston | Fox News Latino
    I wouldn't be as dismissive to the gang issues in Houston. The difference with Houston is that instead of gangs standing on street corners all over the city, there is land and space in Houston so the gangs are more spread out and not as visible.

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    A lot of things correlate. But is there a cause-effect relationship?

    In the movie Freakonomics (recommended) they show that it was believed that somehow ice cream was related to polio since ice cream sales and polio cases had almost the same curve. Luckily they figured it out or else we may not have our BR31s!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluegrasscard View Post
    A lot of things correlate. But is there a cause-effect relationship?

    In the movie Freakonomics (recommended) they show that it was believed that somehow ice cream was related to polio since ice cream sales and polio cases had almost the same curve. Luckily they figured it out or else we may not have our BR31s!
    Same thing with ice cream and murder.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    Same thing with ice cream and murder.
    Only wackos eat ice cream in cold weather.
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    I imagine a more interesting comparison would be comparing Chicago's homicide rates before and after gun law changes. That could control for a lot of the idiosyncrasies among different cities, assuming not a lot else changed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    As a side note, of course I am kidding about cold weather causing murder and it becomes confusing because I think there is a very strong correlation (looking for the right word here) between warm weather and murder.

    Obviously this all has little or nothing to do with cold weather.
    Thanks. I hate getting blamed for stuff.
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