Louisville - In or Out?

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    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Louisville - In or Out?

    They are definitely a bubble team.

    The thing that doesn't make sense to me is if Florida St. or Virginia Tech are in and Louisville is out.

    What do you think? Should UL be in?
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    Jumper_Dad's Avatar
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    Va Tech has wins over Duke, Virginia, UNC and Clemson...that probably helps them.

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    The biggest thing hurting the Cards is that their best wins are against ND and Va Tech both ranked in the 30's in KenPom.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jumper_Dad View Post
    Va Tech has wins over Duke, Virginia, UNC and Clemson...that probably helps them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumper_Dad View Post
    The biggest thing hurting the Cards is that their best wins are against ND and Va Tech both ranked in the 30's in KenPom.
    No doubt. Lack of a single 1-25 win is what keeps UL out if they are out. If they are out, the meltdown against Virginia is the reason. They have the head to head advantage against both Florida St. and Va. Tech so the lack of quality wins is the only way you can put those two in and keep UL out.

    The only two top 50 RPI teams with zero top 50 wins are UL and Buffalo.

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    AverageJoesGym's Avatar
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    Out.

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    Should these teams be in over UL?

    St. Mary's - Only 4 top 100 wins. (UL has 7 top 100 wins). St. Mary's SOS is #212 vs. UL SOS #12. St. Mary's is lower in the RPI than UL. What argument can be made that this team is in and UL is out?

    Marquette - No top 25 wins. Ranked #55 in RPI (UL is #38). One more top 100 win than UL. Has 4 quadrant 1 wins to UL's 3. So no big advantage and 17 spots lower in the RPI. How can this team be in over UL?

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    I believe they are out. The home meltdown to Virginia and their loss to NC State will be too much to overcome. Other conference tournaments arenít helping their chances at this point either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hrcarrier View Post
    I believe they are out. The home meltdown to Virginia and their loss to NC State will be too much to overcome. Other conference tournaments aren’t helping their chances at this point either.
    I agree. But I sure want the teams that are in to have a better resume. I don't think St. Mary's or Marquette are better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I agree. But I sure want the teams that are in to have a better resume. I don't think St. Mary's or Marquette are better.
    Louisville is better than St Mary’s. But they haven’t exactly been given the same opportunity to prove that. They can’t really control the fact their conference isn’t any good outside of the Zags. Plus it’s not like Louisville has really done anything to prove they are better it’s basically just eye test that proves that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GrantNKY View Post
    Louisville is better than St Mary’s. But they haven’t exactly been given the same opportunity to prove that. They can’t really control the fact their conference isn’t any good outside of the Zags. Plus it’s not like Louisville has really done anything to prove they are better it’s basically just eye test that proves that.
    A SOS of 212 should be an automatic disqualifier for an at large bid. Saint Mary's also has losses to RPI #142 and #177. UL's worst loss is on the road to #62 in the RPI. There is no argument for St. Mary's in over UL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    A SOS of 212 should be an automatic disqualifier for an at large bid. Saint Mary's also has losses to RPI #142 and #177. UL's worst loss is on the road to #62 in the RPI. There is no argument for St. Mary's in over UL.
    It’s a 68 team field very few things should be automatic disqualifiers. St Mary’s is in a tough spot. They have been a pretty decent mid major for a while now, but they aren’t Gonzaga so they don’t get invited to some of the premier early season tournaments where they could bolster their SOS and resume against power 5 schools. I’m not sure what else they can do except win every game. I’d put Louisville in over St Mary’s because they’re Louisville and are more talented not because they have really proven that they are significantly better. UL played a much tougher schedule but lost to the majority of the really good teams on their schedule as well. The metrics you are using to base your opinion are extremely flawed. Just say UL is better and no one would disagree with you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GrantNKY View Post
    It’s a 68 team field very few things should be automatic disqualifiers. St Mary’s is in a tough spot. They have been a pretty decent mid major for a while now, but they aren’t Gonzaga so they don’t get invited to some of the premier early season tournaments where they could bolster their SOS and resume against power 5 schools. I’m not sure what else they can do except win every game. I’d put Louisville in over St Mary’s because they’re Louisville and are more talented not because they have really proven that they are significantly better. UL played a much tougher schedule but lost to the majority of the really good teams on their schedule as well. The metrics you are using to base your opinion are extremely flawed. Just say UL is better and no one would disagree with you.
    I don't buy it. St. Mary's can schedule better. Until they do, they don't deserve to get in unless they put enough on the resume to earn it. This year they haven't earned it over UL.

    Plus, those two bad losses should mean something too. They not only scheduled bad they lost games to bad teams.

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    I'm going to guess NIT but I hope they get in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    I don't buy it. St. Mary's can schedule better. Until they do, they don't deserve to get in unless they put enough on the resume to earn it. This year they haven't earned it over UL.

    Plus, those two bad losses should mean something too. They not only scheduled bad they lost games to bad teams.
    How can they schedule better? They are at a disadvantage geographically because they are at the direct opposite end of the country from the majority of the country’s best teams. They aren’t a big enough name to get invited to early season tournaments. They traveled to Georgia this year. Do you want them to make a couple of trips across the country every year? That’s just not practical. I’ll give you the bad losses, but they have 5 losses on the season it’s not like they made a habit of it.

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    I saw a crazy stat... there has only been one time in the history of the NCAA tournament that a team with a top 40 RPI failed to make it. It hasn’t happened since the expansion to 68.

    If we don’t get in, it wasn’t because we didn’t beat Virginia. There are 7 or 8 games that were ripe for the taking.

    We should have cashed in against miami and Clemson on the road. We should have taken care of seton hall, Florida State and Syracuse at home.

    We lost by 8 or so against Purdue, but it was back and forth the entire game.

    Virginia is obvious.

    If any of those games bounce the other way, we are no doubt in.

    What’s really awful is that I really think we have good players. I really like David, but if Coach Pitino had this team we’d have been something like a 3 seed...or at the worst, solidly in the field receiving an at large bid.

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