History Tells Us....

  1. #1
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 05
    Location
    Family of 4, coming January 2019...
    Posts
    64,165

    History Tells Us....

    The National Champion will be a team that is top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

    That being said the National Champion will come from the below group:

    Duke
    Gonzaga
    Virginia
    Kentucky
    Michigan State
    Virginia Tech

    Agree? Anyone not listed have a shot?
    Advertisement

  2. #2
    TheDeuce's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Location
    “It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am." - Muhammad Ali
    Posts
    52,714

    Add Tennessee to that list and I'd say you're safe betting that group.

  3. #3
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 05
    Location
    Family of 4, coming January 2019...
    Posts
    64,165

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDeuce View Post
    Add Tennessee to that list and I'd say you're safe betting that group.
    They're #3 in offensive efficiency, but #40 in defensive. Was a little surprised to see how low they were on defense.

    The only outlier going back all the way to 2002 was the 2014 UConn team. They were #10 defensively, but #39 offensively.

  4. #4
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 05
    Location
    Family of 4, coming January 2019...
    Posts
    64,165

    3 teams just on the outskirts of top 20 in both are Louisville, North Carolina, and Kansas.

  5. #5
    Voice of Reason's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 08
    Location
    N. KY.
    Posts
    31,223

    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    The National Champion will be a team that is top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

    That being said the National Champion will come from the below group:

    Duke
    Gonzaga
    Virginia
    Kentucky
    Michigan State
    Virginia Tech

    Agree? Anyone not listed have a shot?
    That list looks short this year. How many teams are there usually on the list? Also, the list can keep changing, right?

  6. #6
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 05
    Location
    Family of 4, coming January 2019...
    Posts
    64,165

    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    That list looks short this year. How many teams are there usually on the list? Also, the list can keep changing, right?
    It can. Probably only teams that could join are Louisville, Kansas, UNC, and maybe Michigan and Tennessee, but they are probably long shots IMO.

  7. #7
    Pura Vida's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 14
    Location
    A sky full of stars
    Posts
    1,230

    I’ll take “history”.

    My sense is there are a lot of good teams this season. However, this year, none will top the short list of REALLY good teams as National Champ.

  8. #8
    UKMustangFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 05
    Location
    Family of 4, coming January 2019...
    Posts
    64,165

    Updated as of this morning....

    Duke
    Virginia
    North Carolina
    Michigan State
    Kentucky
    Louisville

    Maryland & Gonzaga are right on the cusp of joining the list.

  9. #9
    TheDeuce's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Location
    “It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am." - Muhammad Ali
    Posts
    52,714

    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    Updated as of this morning....

    Duke
    Virginia
    North Carolina
    Michigan State
    Kentucky
    Louisville

    Maryland & Gonzaga are right on the cusp of joining the list.
    Louisville will have played everyone on that list. Seven games (at least) to be exact. Tough sledding.

  10. #10
    Getslow's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 01
    Location
    I've a seat by the fire, so I shan't move.
    Posts
    22,721

    That near-disaster of a game on Saturday pushed Louisville into the top 20 defensively. There's comedy in that, somewhere.

  11. #11
    woodsrider's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 04
    Posts
    20,462

    According to last year's thread on this 20 of the last 21 years the national champ has been top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Kenpom ratings).

    As of today that is a pretty big list unless I'm not reading the rankings right.
    Michigan
    Virginia
    Duke
    Kentucky
    Michigan St.
    UNC
    Houston
    Gonzaga
    Louisville
    Maryland
    Tennessee
    Purdue
    Nevada

  12. #12
    Randy Parker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 08
    Location
    In the snow, laying there like a slug
    Posts
    67,742

    Quote Originally Posted by UKMustangFan View Post
    The only outlier going back all the way to 2002 was the 2014 UConn team. They were #10 defensively, but #39 offensively.
    Most of that tournament seemed like an outlier.

    What about 2011 UConn?

  13. #13

    Join Date
    Nov 03
    Location
    The City of Beautiful Homes
    Posts
    2,422

    Quote Originally Posted by woodsrider View Post
    According to last year's thread on this 20 of the last 21 years the national champ has been top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Kenpom ratings).

    As of today that is a pretty big list unless I'm not reading the rankings right.
    Michigan
    Virginia
    Duke
    Kentucky
    Michigan St.
    UNC
    Houston
    Gonzaga
    Louisville
    Maryland
    Tennessee
    Purdue
    Nevada
    This article (What does Kenpom tell us about Past Champions? - VU Hoops) suggests it is Top 20.

  14. #14

    Join Date
    Nov 03
    Location
    The City of Beautiful Homes
    Posts
    2,422

    Quote Originally Posted by Randy Parker View Post
    Most of that tournament seemed like an outlier.

    What about 2011 UConn?
    The article I shared above says 2011 UConn was 19 O and 15 D, so Top 20 in both.

  15. #15
    Randy Parker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 08
    Location
    In the snow, laying there like a slug
    Posts
    67,742

    Quote Originally Posted by jpa2825 View Post
    The article I shared above says 2011 UConn was 19 O and 15 D, so Top 20 in both.
    Thanks.

Top