Tropical Storm Irma

Page 13 of Irma is now a major Cat 3 hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph. The models are all over the place with the track of Irma. Those from the Carribean... 289 comments | 10109 Views | Go to page 1 →

  1. #181
    swamprat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    I just watched a local Florida news report that said the latest projection has shifted about 40 miles to the west.

    Looks like Tampa could take a direct hit @swamprat
    Denis Phillip at Channel 28 (WFTS) does not think so, but nobody knows at this point.

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  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by swamprat View Post
    Denis Phillip at Channel 28 (WFTS) does not think so, but nobody knows at this point.

    Denis Phillips - Home | Facebook
    I watched a little bit of that, I like his presentation skills.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by swamprat View Post
    Tonight, I topped off the truck and the car, then filled 20 gallons worth of gas containers at Costco.

    My neighbor and I went out and got 30 gallons of diesel fuel for another neighbors tractor, in case we need to trench or move debris.

    The same neighbor said that gas would not be a problem, since his boat has a 100 gallon tank and is full.

    I'm doing a final test on my generator tomorrow. If you see a large mushroom cloud over Tampa Bay, you'll know I didn't get the conversion kit put on properly.
    Your're a good man swamprat...just don't channel Lt. Dan and scream from the top of your home after too many drinks in the peak of the storm!

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    I watched a little bit of that, I like his presentation skills.

    Rules For Hurricane Season

    1. Storm track errors past 3 days are HUGE. Don't get caught up on forecasts that far out. You'll go crazy.

    2. Models flip flop back and forth all the time. Look for trends, don't look at individual model runs.

    3. If you didn't prepare in June (which you probably didn't), do so now. Check your hurricane kit and guide to see what YOU and your family
    need.

    4. Don't freak out.

    5. Don't freak out. Ok? We live in Florida. It goes with the territory. The odds of a storm affecting us directly is usually low, and the track that the NHC now has, would probably lift Northeast and weaken considerably after passing Cuba. The track will change often. At this point, our chances of a direct strikes are EXTREMELY LOW. LET'S REPEAT THAT ONE, our chances of direct strikes are EXTREMELY low.

    6. KNOW that we will be there will you 24-7. You're going to hear a ton of information. It can get confusing. Stick with us. We won't steer you wrong.

    7. Stop freaking out....until I tell you to. We're fine.

    Authored by Denis Phillips

  5. #185
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    Here is the latest GFS track and like Guru posted the projected Irma track has shifted back westward some. At landfall, the GFS shows Irma has a Cat 3 Hurricane. Also as swamprat posted it is trends and note exact tracks to look at. The GFS has been trending a track along or just off the coast of Florida for a while.


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  6. #186
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    @nWo, it's my understanding that the Euro track is the one throwing the westward wrench in the works.

  7. #187
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    at 8 pm Irma is still at Cat 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 175 mph. It is moving west northwest at 16 mph.


    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to BonitaBeach* Florida Keys.

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to BonitaBeach* Florida Keys* Lake Okeechobee* Florida Bay

    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.For a depiction of areas at risk.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.

    Attachment 63706Attachment 63707Attachment 63708

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by swamprat View Post
    @nWo, it's my understanding that the Euro track is the one throwing the westward wrench in the works.
    The GFS is also showing the westward track. Earlier today was showing landfall then going off the coast. This evening it is showing landfall then going up the entire east coast of Florida.

    These are also what we need to watch. Model agreement and trends. Also, add about 150 miles either way for errors. So the whole state of Florida should be watching this closely.

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by theguru View Post
    I wish we humans possessed the technology to Quash a major weather system.
    According to some on Facebook the government created this storm.
    Talk about some entertainment

  10. #190
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    Irma is now in the time range of the NAM model and this is what it is showing. Pretty close to the GFS.

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  11. #191
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    This is what the Candian/GDPS is showing. Remember earlier in the week it was showing Irma going in the Gulf of Mexico. Now it is good agreement with the GFS and NAM models.

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  12. #192
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    Well, I'll be leaving for work in a few. Got off at 3 pm today came home ate then went to bed. I'll try to be back on with an update around 4:30 am EDT in the morning with an update. Also, I'll try to update everyone on our twitter feed during the night.

    Everyone in Florida is in my thoughts and prayer.s

  13. #193
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    My flight leaves at 5:30am. I hope everyone stays safe. I hope the many colleagues that have hotels in the areas about to be hit stay safe as well. And, besides Swampy, I have another friend in Tampa. I hate feeling relieved I'll be well away from harm when so many will be staying for all the various reasons there are.

  14. #194
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    5:00 am update.

    Hurricane Irma is now a category 4 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds 155 mph. Moving west northwest at 16 mph.



    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
    Beach
    * Florida Keys

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
    * North of Bonita Beach to Venice

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
    Beach
    * Florida Keys
    * Lake Okeechobee
    * Florida Ba

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  15. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockmom View Post
    My flight leaves at 5:30am. I hope everyone stays safe. I hope the many colleagues that have hotels in the areas about to be hit stay safe as well. And, besides Swampy, I have another friend in Tampa. I hate feeling relieved I'll be well away from harm when so many will be staying for all the various reasons there are.
    Be safe my friend.

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