Mar 14, 18, 01:40 AM #1
Storms possible Saturday afternoon 3/17/18 (update)Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. Some of which could be strong to severe. I'll be watching the situation and post updates when warranted.
Here is the simulated radar.
Mar 15, 18, 05:45 PM #2
Update 3/16/18It seems that the severe threat maybe growing for parts of Kentucky for Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. For now, it doesn't look like it will be a widespread event. The areas of most concern are mainly south of I-64 from southcentral to eastern Kentucky. The NAM 3km model is showing an increase in the chance of scattered strong to severe storms. Timing looks to be from 2-8 pm EDT. Also, the morning showers may limit the development of severe storms later Saturday.
Here are some maps to show what I'm seeing. I will update in the morning.
Atmospheric energy for severe storm development.
Supercell development conditions
Significant Tornado development
Here is the simulated radar
Mar 16, 18, 01:54 AM #3
UpdateNo real change in my forecast for Saturday. Here is a map from the Storm Prediction Center showing that parts of Kentucky are in a Marginal Risk Area for possible severe storms.
Mar 17, 18, 09:43 AM #4
Update 3/17/18Parts of southeast Kentucky are now in a Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. For now, the main threats look to be hail and damaging wind gusts. This area is surrounded by a Marginal Risk Area.
The timing looks to be from 3 pm to 8 pm EDT. Here is the simulated HRRR radar for that time period.
The EHI for the same time period
Mar 17, 18, 03:14 PM #5Good chance a severe weather watch will be issued soon for southeast Kentucky.