Deadliest US Cities

  1. #1
    TylerDurden's Avatar
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    Deadliest US Cities

    CBS News put together a list of the 60 deadliest cities in the United States. The stats don't look good for the Derby City or the Queen City. I was surprised to see them so close per capita to Chicago. And as much as the news makes Chicago out to be nothing but a virtual gangland, it's only about a third of the murder the rate per capita that St. Louis is!

    Top 20:
    20 - Atlanta, GA 16.7 murders per 100,000 residents
    19 - Washington DC 17.0 murders per 100,000 residents
    18 - Oakland, CA 17.1 murders per 100,000 residents
    17 - Louisville, KY 17.5 murders per 100,000 residents
    16 - Indianapolis, IN 17.7 murders per 100,000 residents
    15 - Pittsburgh, PA 18.4 murders per 100,000 residents
    14 - Tulsa, OK 18.6 murders per 100,000 residents
    13 - Milwaukee, WI 20 murders per 100,000 residents
    12 - Philadelphia, PA 20.0 murders per 100,000 residents
    11 - Cincinnati, OH 23.8 murders per 100,000 residents
    10 - Chicago, IL 24.0 murders per 100,000 residents
    9 - Newark, NJ 25.6 murders per 100,000 residents
    8 - Memphis, TN 27.1 murders per 100,000 residents
    7 - Kansas City, MO 31.2 murders per 100,000 residents
    6 - Las Vegas, NV 31.4 murders per 100,000 residents
    5 - Cleveland, OH 33.7 murders per 100,000 residents
    4 - Detroit, MI 39.7 murders per 100,000 residents
    3 - New Orleans, LA 40.6 murders per 100,000 residents
    2 - Baltimore, MD 51.1 murders per 100,000 residents
    1 - St. Louis, MO 64.9 murders per 100,000 residents
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    Getslow's Avatar
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    If you look at those statistics even closer, they're massively centered in a few neighborhoods in each of those cities. I would bet that I could name three neighborhoods in Louisville and Cincinnati and hit on the location of 95% of these homicides.

    Those neighborhoods are exactly what you'd imagine. Low-income, heavy on renters instead of owners, devoid of the things that keep neighborhoods together like small businesses, grocery stores, and civic institutions of residents.

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    sweet16's Avatar
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    I read an article the other day that listed these three as the most dangerous:
    1. Detroit
    2. St. Louis
    3. Memphis

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    Quote Originally Posted by sweet16 View Post
    I read an article the other day that listed these three as the most dangerous:
    1. Detroit
    2. St. Louis
    3. Memphis
    If I'm not mistaken, "most dangerous" figures usually incorporate violent crimes into the equation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Getslow View Post
    If you look at those statistics even closer, they're massively centered in a few neighborhoods in each of those cities. I would bet that I could name three neighborhoods in Louisville and Cincinnati and hit on the location of 95% of these homicides.

    Those neighborhoods are exactly what you'd imagine. Low-income, heavy on renters instead of owners, devoid of the things that keep neighborhoods together like small businesses, grocery stores, and civic institutions of residents.
    Yep. Beecher Terrace, California Park, Russel or Newburg.

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    Surprises on the list? Here are some that surprised me.

    1. Chicago being #10. I would have guessed top 2 or 3.

    2. New York City is not on the list.

    3. Los Angeles is not on the list either.

    4. Las Vegas at #6.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    Surprises on the list? Here are some that surprised me.

    1. Chicago being #10. I would have guessed top 2 or 3.

    2. New York City is not on the list.

    3. Los Angeles is not on the list either.


    4. Las Vegas at #6.
    They are on the list in the link, just farther down. But I agree, much lower than I expected them to be.

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    Voice of Reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDeuce View Post
    They are on the list in the link, just farther down. But I agree, much lower than I expected them to be.
    I was just looking at the top 20 in the OP. I expected those to be in the top 20.

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    John Anthony's Avatar
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    Any similarities in those cities?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sweet16 View Post
    I read an article the other day that listed these three as the most dangerous:
    1. Detroit
    2. St. Louis
    3. Memphis
    For as long as I can remember these cities have been in the running for the top spot of this infamous designation.

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    Getslow's Avatar
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    I wonder what the population cutoff was for this. I ask because during the year this data is for, 2017, Evansville, IN saw a record 20 homicides. It dropped back to 11 or 12 last year, but 20 homicides was enough that Evansville would be No. 20 on this list, at 16.8 per 100,000 residents.

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    TylerDurden's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voice of Reason View Post
    Surprises on the list? Here are some that surprised me.

    1. Chicago being #10. I would have guessed top 2 or 3.

    2. New York City is not on the list.

    3. Los Angeles is not on the list either.

    4. Las Vegas at #6.
    The Vegas figure included the numbers from the 2017 Mandalay Bay shooting during the Jason Aldrean concert. All of the figures from the CBS list were based on most recently compiled totals, which are usually a year or two behind.

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    Getslow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TylerDurden View Post
    The Vegas figure included the numbers from the 2017 Mandalay Bay shooting during the Jason Aldrean concert. All of the figures from the CBS list were based on most recently compiled totals, which are usually a year or two behind.
    Yeah single-year numbers in something like this aren't particularly helpful. It can really skew things.

    For example, there was a murder-suicide in Warsaw, KY last year. That single homicide would make Warsaw's homicide rate approximately 59.2 per 100,000, which would be No. 2 on this list, but that's not particularly helpful, both because there are only about 1,600-1,700 people in Warsaw and because in most years there are no murders in Warsaw at all.

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    Is this study using city limits for population purposes, or market? Cincinnati's city limits have 301,000, but it is a very small area around downtown, which also is where the largest concentration of murders occur (the neighborhoods alluded to by GetSlow). If you took the entire area, 2.1 million people, your number of murders wouldn't go up all that much from the 70 or so they used for their study, but the divisor would change greatly. Stuff like this can be very misleading.

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Anthony View Post
    Any similarities in those cities?
    Massive flight of residential wealth away from the cities over the last 40 years

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