Feb 9, 16, 02:53 AM #1
Beginning next week 2/15/16As I thought, winter is not finished here in Kentucky yet. While we will have another shot of light snow on Thursday. I see our best chance at getting some more snow accumulations at the beginning of next week.
Starting on Monday into Tuesday the models are showing a good chance of snow. We are a week out so it should be on everyone's mind.
Feb 9, 16, 05:20 AM #2
Feb 9, 16, 06:28 AM #3
Feb 9, 16, 06:35 AM #4Remember I said we would see the worst of winter in February.
Feb 9, 16, 07:01 PM #5Tuesday evening update:
This weekend could be a brutal one. For now it looks like we may be seeing the coldest temps of this winter. First I want to show everyone how cold this air mass is that looks to come to Kentucky this weekend. The first picture is for Saturday morning. It shows the air temperature at 5,000 ft. I use it to estimate the possible afternoon highs. It shows me that the afternoon highs on Saturday look to be around 8 degrees. Especially in parts of NKY.
Also it is a good indication of what type of precipitation we might get since most precipitation starts at 5,000 ft or above. Temps below 32 degrees could mean snow.
I don't expect any precipitation the first part of the weekend because there looks to be a high pressure system right on top of Kentucky. This will give us clear skies and a chance for overnight lows around 0 or even below 0 for some.
We will see temps moderate some on Sunday night into Monday. That is when everything could get going. First it looks to start in WKY and pregress eastward overnight and during the day on Monday. Then finish up on Tuesday. The GFS shows that in the following two maps.
The final two maps show the it also starting Sunday night in WKY Then the rest of Kentucky on Monday.
I don't want to give out any total of any possible snow accumulations because we are still almost a week away but I think it really needs to be watched.
Keep checking back for updates.
Feb 9, 16, 07:12 PM #6Here are the maps showing the high pressure and low pressure systems I mentioned in my last post. The first shows the high pressure passing over Kentucky Saturday into Sunday. Take note of the low pressure system over the panhandle of Texas. It is forecast to move southeast towards the Gulf Coast then turn up the east coast Sunday into Monday. If this happens this is where the snow will come from. It depends on when it starts its turn up the east coast and how much Gulf moisture it will throw our way.
Feb 10, 16, 04:25 AM #7Just a quick update for this Wednesday morning. I've looked at the latest Sea Level Pressure maps for this time period. They are showing a more northerly track for this system. Now we are still several days away and things could change but one other thing I did notice is a little heaver precipitation is possible to our southwest. So the track of this will be very important. I'll update again later today.
Feb 10, 16, 07:00 AM #8Just got to work and took a quick glance at the Winter Weather Outlook map. Looks like parts of Kentucky now have around a 70% chance of snow by Tuesday Morning.
Feb 10, 16, 08:52 AM #9
Feb 10, 16, 09:05 AM #10
Feb 10, 16, 09:13 AM #11First let me emphasize that this is not making a prediction but I want to show what maybe heading our way depending on the path of this system. Now it seems that a secondary low may form and with that an increase in any precipitation amounts.
The first map is Saturday until Monday but my thinking is most of this won't start until sometime on Sunday. It shows real well where I was talking about it starting in WKY.
Now if the secondary low forms and depending on what track it takes, you can see how much anticipated precipitation may come our way. That is a huge amount.
So this needs to be watched closely and I will post updates as the info comes in.
Feb 10, 16, 06:27 PM #12Sadly, I remember @nWo mentioning that we may have an ice event or two this winter. I don't know why and I'm going off my gut, not anything meterogical, but my gut tells me this will be one of them. I hope not.
Feb 10, 16, 08:01 PM #13
Feb 10, 16, 08:10 PM #14
Feb 10, 16, 08:11 PM #15Whatever type of precipitation we get on Monday the entire state now as around a 70% chance. I'll update in the morning.